CS Marítimo vs CD Santa Clara prediction

Primeira Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 18:00 UK

CS Marítimo vs CD Santa Clara prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 18:00 UK): CS Marítimo 28% · Draw 28% · CD Santa Clara 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.03–1.35. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (10%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Marítimo vs Santa Clara preview

Marítimo (13th, 8 pts) host Santa Clara (4th, 18 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Marítimo have taken 1 point from their last 5 games (LLDLL) and Santa Clara 11 points from 5 (WDWWD), so Santa Clara arrive in clearly better form. Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.

Our model favours Santa Clara at 44% to Marítimo's 28%. Expected goals are 1.03 for Marítimo and 1.35 for Santa Clara, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 58%, while 54% of Primeira Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 4 meetings, Marítimo won 2, Santa Clara won 1 and 1 ended level; all had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win CS Marítimo vs CD Santa Clara?

CD Santa Clara are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a CS Marítimo win together still account for 56%. Recent form: CS Marítimo LLDLLL, CD Santa Clara WDWWDW (latest first).

Santa Clara won 3 of 4 away games this season.

CS Marítimo

28%

Draw

28%

CD Santa Clara

44%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 58%; Over 2.5 is 42%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Santa Clara away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	69%	31%	1.45
2.5 goals	42%	58%	2.36
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.61

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: CS Marítimo score in about 64% of simulated outcomes and CD Santa Clara in about 74%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	49%	2.03
No	51%	1.97

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
CS Marítimo win	28%	3.57
Draw	28%	3.54
CD Santa Clara win	44%	2.29
Over 2.5	42%	2.36
Under 2.5	58%	1.74

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

Share:X WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: CS Marítimo goals (rows) × CD Santa Clara goals (columns)
CS \ CD	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	12%	8%	4%	1%	0%
1	9%	13%	9%	4%	1%	0%
2	5%	7%	4%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	2%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

0-1

12%

0-0

10%

1-0

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Marítimo and Santa Clara played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Marítimo, last 5

Marítimo, last 5 at home

Santa Clara, last 5

Santa Clara, last 5 away

Current streaks

Santa Clara are unbeaten in their last 8 league games.
Marítimo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Marítimo have not won in their last 7 league games.

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Marítimo and Santa Clara.

How Marítimo and Santa Clara compare this season

Stat	Marítimo (home, 4)	Santa Clara (away, 4)	Primeira Liga average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	74%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	54%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	36%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	49%
Win %	25% (1/4)	75% (3/4)	38% home · 38% away
Goals for per game	1.00	1.25	1.36
Goals against per game	1.75	0.50	1.36

Primeira Liga average from 76 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Marítimo	13	8	9
Santa Clara	4	18	8

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Marítimo 2 wins, 1 draw, Santa Clara 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 4; both teams scored in 4 of 4.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 25 Feb 2023	Primeira Liga	Marítimo v Santa Clara	3–1
Sun, 4 Sept 2022	Primeira Liga	Santa Clara v Marítimo	2–1
Sat, 23 Apr 2022	Primeira Liga	Santa Clara v Marítimo	2–2
Sat, 11 Dec 2021	Primeira Liga	Marítimo v Santa Clara	4–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Marítimo v Santa Clara?: Our model makes Santa Clara the more likely winner at 44%: Marítimo 28%, draw 28%, Santa Clara 44%. Santa Clara won 3 of 4 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marítimo v Santa Clara?: Over 2.5 goals is 42% and under 2.5 is 58%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Santa Clara away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Marítimo and Santa Clara played recently?: Latest first: Marítimo LLDLL, Santa Clara WDWWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaEstoril PraiavMoreirense	O1.577%	47%	26%	27%	77%	52%	30%	52%	52%	77%	30%	52%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaNacionalvBraga	O1.577%	22%	24%	54%	77%	52%	30%	51%	52%	77%	30%	51%
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaRio AvevFamalicão	U3.578%	28%	28%	44%	69%	42%	22%	49%	42%	69%	22%	49%
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSporting CPvAcad. Viseu	O1.585%	73%	17%	11%	85%	65%	43%	51%	65%	85%	43%	51%
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaSanta ClaravSL Benfica	U3.578%	18%	26%	57%	70%	43%	22%	48%	43%	70%	22%	48%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:15 · PrimeiraPrimeira LigaCasa PiavSporting CP	O1.583%	8%	16%	76%	83%	62%	40%	49%	62%	83%	40%	49%

Other matches the same day