Primeira Liga · Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:45 UK
Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo prediction (Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 20:45 UK): Vitória SC 49% · Draw 26% · CS Marítimo 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.58–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 23 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Vitória vs Marítimo preview
Vitória (15th, 5 pts) host Marítimo (11th, 8 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Vitória have taken 2 points from their last 5 games (LDLDL) and Marítimo 1 point from 5 (LDLLL). Marítimo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
Our model favours Vitória at 49% to Marítimo's 25%. Expected goals are 1.58 for Vitória and 1.05 for Marítimo, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).
The goal markets sit close to the Primeira Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 51%. In their last 4 meetings, Vitória won all 4; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 51%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.
Who will win Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
Vitória SC are favoured at 49%, but the draw and a CS Marítimo win together still account for 51%. Recent form: Vitória SC LDLDLW, CS Marítimo LDLLLD (latest first).
Marítimo have not won in their last 6 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.
Under 2.5 in all 4 Vitória home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 74% | 26% | 1.35 |
| 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | 2.04 |
| 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | 3.69 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Vitória SC score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and CS Marítimo in about 65%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 4 Marítimo away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 |
| CS Marítimo win | 25% | 4.02 |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.6 total goals.
| Vitória \ CS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 11% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Vitória and Marítimo played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Marítimo: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 7 league games.
- Marítimo have not won in their last 6 league games.
- Vitória have not won in their last 5 league games.
- Vitória: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
- Marítimo: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Vitória and Marítimo.
How Vitória and Marítimo compare this season
| Stat | Vitória (home, 4) | Marítimo (away, 4) | Primeira Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 25% (1/4) | 100% (4/4) | 75% |
| Over 2.5 | 0% (0/4) | 75% (3/4) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% (0/4) | 25% (1/4) | 36% |
| BTTS | 25% (1/4) | 100% (4/4) | 51% |
| Win % | 25% (1/4) | 25% (1/4) | 39% home · 36% away |
| Goals for per game | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.38 |
| Goals against per game | 0.50 | 1.75 | 1.38 |
Primeira Liga average from 72 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Primeira Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória | 15 | 5 | 8 |
| Marítimo | 11 | 8 | 8 |
Head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Vitória 4 wins, 0 draws, Marítimo 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 4; both teams scored in 2 of 4.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 29 Apr 2023 | Primeira Liga | Marítimo v Vitória | 1–2 |
| Sun, 13 Nov 2022 | Primeira Liga | Vitória v Marítimo | 1–0 |
| Sun, 13 Mar 2022 | Primeira Liga | Marítimo v Vitória | 0–1 |
| Fri, 22 Oct 2021 | Primeira Liga | Vitória v Marítimo | 2–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Vitória v Marítimo?
- Our model makes Vitória the more likely winner at 49%: Vitória 49%, draw 26%, Marítimo 25%. Marítimo have not won in their last 6 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vitória v Marítimo?
- Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.6. Under 2.5 in all 4 Vitória home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Vitória and Marítimo played recently?
- Latest first: Vitória LDLDL, Marítimo LDLLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Vitória SC
- CS Marítimo
- Primeira Liga predictions
- Primeira Liga table
- Primeira Liga Home win
- Primeira Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | U3.576% | 47% | 27% | 25% | 45% | 71% | 24% | 50% |
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | O1.578% | 42% | 26% | 32% | 53% | 78% | 31% | 53% |
20:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | U3.581% | 18% | 27% | 54% | 39% | 66% | 19% | 47% |
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
15:30 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | O1.577% | 47% | 26% | 28% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 52% |
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | O1.576% | 22% | 24% | 54% | 52% | 76% | 30% | 51% |
18:00 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | U3.578% | 28% | 28% | 44% | 42% | 69% | 22% | 49% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 51% | 23% | 26% | 63% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
FT · BundesligaBundesliga  | O1.586%✓ | 65%✕ | 19%✕ | 16%✓ | 68%✓ | 86%✓ | 46%✓ | 61%✓ |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 46% | 26% | 28% | 49% | 75% | 27% | 52% |
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | O1.577% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.575% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 47% | 72% | 25% | 52% |