ProbaPredict

Under 3.5 goals predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026

Football predictions for under 3.5 goals, ranked from the highest model probability down.

Under 3.5 goals means the match has 3 or fewer goals in normal time: for example 2-1 or 1-1. What does Under 2.5 goals mean?

75% is the highest Under 3.5 goals probability Fri, 23 Oct 2026: Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.

Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 953 finished with under 3.5 goals (64%). Last season: 2,928 of 4,195 (70%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.

These are Fri, 23 Oct 2026's football predictions for under 3.5 goals, ranked by the model's probability. A 70% pick still fails three times in ten, so read the percentage, not just the position. Our 60%+ Under 3.5 goals picks have been correct 59% of the time over the last 30 days (211 graded).

TodayTomorrowWeekendYesterday's record

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Under 3.5 goals predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026, ranked by probability
Fair odds
Fri, 23 Oct 2026
FT · La LigaDeportivo Alavés crestAlavés1Málaga CF crestMálaga1Under 3.5 in 8 of 9 Alavés games this season75%1.33U3.575%✓50%✕26%✓23%✕47%✕72%✓25%✕52%✓
FT · PrimeiraVitória SC crestVitória5CS Marítimo crestMarítimo0Under 3.5 in all 4 Vitória home games this season73%1.37O1.574%✓49%✓26%✕25%✕49%✓74%✓27%✓51%✕
FT · Serie ATorino FC crestTorino3AC Monza crestMonza2Under 3.5 in all 7 Torino games this season73%1.38O1.575%✓46%✓26%✕28%✕49%✓75%✓27%✓52%✓
FT · Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 crestBrest1OGC Nice crestNice2Under 3.5 in all 7 Nice games this season70%1.43O1.577%✓45%✕26%✕29%✓52%✓77%✓30%✕56%✓
FT · Premier LgIpswich Town FC crestIpswich Town1Nottingham Forest FC crestNottingham1Under 3.5 in all 3 Ipswich Town home games this season67%1.49O1.579%✓30%✕26%✓44%✕55%✕79%✓33%✕58%✓
FT · EFL ChampBolton Wanderers FC crestBolton1Middlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough5Under 3.5 in 4 of 5 Bolton home games this season66%1.52O1.580%✓33%✕25%✕42%✓57%✓80%✓34%✓56%✓
FT · EredivisieGo Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead3Telstar 1963 crestTelstar2Under 3.5 in all 4 Telstar away games this season60%1.68O1.584%✓51%✓23%✕26%✕63%✓84%✓40%✓60%✓
FT · BundesligaVfB Stuttgart crestStuttgart2Borussia Mönchengladbach crestGladbach3Under 3.5 in 4 of 6 Stuttgart games this season54%1.85O1.586%✓65%✕19%✕16%✓68%✓86%✓46%✓61%✓

Our Under 3.5 picks: 59% correct from 211 graded matches (back-test 73% from 18,256). See the accuracy record.

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What does Under 3.5 goals mean in football predictions?

Under 3.5 goals looks only at the total number of goals scored by both teams in normal time. Under 3.5 needs three or fewer goals. Who scores them does not matter, and extra time does not count.

Our model predicts each team's expected goals from its attacking strength and the opponent's defensive record, adjusted for home advantage and recent form. It then spreads those expectations across every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, applies a small correction for low-scoring draws, and adds up every scoreline that lands under the 3.5 line.

To convert the percentage into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by it: 60% becomes 1.67 and 45% becomes 2.22. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin. A 70% under still misses roughly three times in ten, which is exactly what a calibrated model should do. The list below is ranked from the highest probability to the lowest.

New to this? Read: What does Under 2.5 goals mean? · Which league has the most goals?

These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.

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Frequently asked questions

How often does Under 3.5 land in the competitions we cover?
Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 953 finished with under 3.5 goals (64%). Last season: 2,928 of 4,195 (70%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
How is the Under 3.5 probability calculated?
Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
What is the most likely Under 3.5 pick Fri, 23 Oct 2026?
Alavés v Málaga at 75% (fair odds 1.33). Under 3.5 in 8 of 9 Alavés games this season. A 75% pick still fails about 3 times in 10.
How accurate are your Under 3.5 predictions?
Our Under 3.5 picks: 59% correct from 211 graded matches (back-test 73% from 18,256). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.