Home win predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026
Football predictions for home win, ranked from the highest model probability down.
A home win means the home team has more goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties don't count. What is 1X2 in football betting?
65% is the highest Home win probability Fri, 23 Oct 2026: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.
Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 664 finished as home wins (45%). Last season: 1,881 of 4,195 (45%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
These are Fri, 23 Oct 2026's football predictions for home win, ranked by the model's probability. A 70% pick still fails three times in ten, so read the percentage, not just the position. Our 60%+ Home win picks have been correct 57% of the time over the last 30 days (152 graded).
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fair odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
FT · BundesligaBundesliga  | 65% | 1.53 | O1.586%✓ | 65%✕ | 19%✕ | 16%✓ | 68%✓ | 86%✓ | 46%✓ | 61%✓ |
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | 51% | 1.97 | O1.584% | 51% | 23% | 26% | 63% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | 50% | 1.99 | U3.575% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 47% | 72% | 25% | 52% |
20:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | 49% | 2.04 | O1.574% | 49% | 26% | 25% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | 46% | 2.19 | O1.575%✓ | 46%✓ | 26%✕ | 28%✕ | 49%✓ | 75%✓ | 27%✓ | 52%✓ |
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | 45% | 2.22 | O1.577% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
20:00 · EFL ChampChampionship  | 33% | 3.05 | O1.580% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 56% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 30% | 3.37 | O1.579% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 58% |
Our Home win picks: 57% correct from 152 graded matches (back-test 51% from 13,185). See the accuracy record.
What does home win mean in football predictions?
A home win pick is about one thing: the home team finishing the 90 minutes, plus stoppage time, with more goals than its opponent. Extra time and penalties do not count. Our model estimates this by rating every team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting newer matches more heavily and adding a measured home advantage.
From those ratings it builds a grid of every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, gives each one a probability, then adds up all the scorelines where the home side wins. That total is the percentage you see beside each match.
To turn a probability into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by the percentage. A 50% chance equals fair odds of 2.00; 40% equals 2.50; 25% equals 4.00. Fair odds contain no bookmaker margin, so real prices are usually a little shorter. A home win at 65% still fails about one time in three, so treat every number as a likelihood, not a promise. The ranking below runs from the highest home win probability to the lowest.
New to this? Read: What is 1X2 in football betting? · How big is home advantage?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Frequently asked questions
- How often does Home win land in the competitions we cover?
- Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 664 finished as home wins (45%). Last season: 1,881 of 4,195 (45%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
- How is the Home win probability calculated?
- Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
- What is the most likely Home win pick Fri, 23 Oct 2026?
- Stuttgart v Gladbach at 65% (fair odds 1.53). Gladbach lost all 3 away games this season. A 65% pick still fails about 3 times in 10.
- How accurate are your Home win predictions?
- Our Home win picks: 57% correct from 152 graded matches (back-test 51% from 13,185). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.