Over 1.5 goals predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026
Football predictions for over 1.5 goals, ranked from the highest model probability down.
Over 1.5 goals means the match has 2 or more goals in normal time, whoever scores them: 1-1, 2-0 and 3-1 all count. What does Over 1.5 goals mean?
86% is the highest Over 1.5 goals probability Fri, 23 Oct 2026: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.
Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 1,162 finished with over 1.5 goals (79%). Last season: 3,200 of 4,195 (76%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
These are Fri, 23 Oct 2026's football predictions for over 1.5 goals, ranked by the model's probability. A 70% pick still fails three times in ten, so read the percentage, not just the position. Our 60%+ Over 1.5 goals picks have been correct 79% of the time over the last 30 days (217 graded).
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Fair odds | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||||||
FT · BundesligaBundesliga  | 86% | 1.16 | O1.586%✓ | 65%✕ | 19%✕ | 16%✓ | 68%✓ | 86%✓ | 46%✓ | 61%✓ |
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | 84% | 1.20 | O1.584% | 51% | 23% | 26% | 63% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
20:00 · EFL ChampChampionship  | 80% | 1.25 | O1.580% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 56% |
20:00 · Premier LgPremier League  | 79% | 1.26 | O1.579% | 30% | 26% | 44% | 55% | 79% | 33% | 58% |
19:45 · Ligue 1Ligue 1  | 77% | 1.30 | O1.577% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 52% | 77% | 30% | 56% |
FT · Serie ASerie A  | 75% | 1.34 | O1.575%✓ | 46%✓ | 26%✕ | 28%✕ | 49%✓ | 75%✓ | 27%✓ | 52%✓ |
20:45 · PrimeiraPrimeira Liga  | 74% | 1.35 | O1.574% | 49% | 26% | 25% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 51% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | 72% | 1.38 | U3.575% | 50% | 26% | 23% | 47% | 72% | 25% | 52% |
Our Over 1.5 picks: 79% correct from 217 graded matches (back-test 75% from 18,729). See the accuracy record.
What does Over 1.5 goals mean in football predictions?
Over 1.5 goals looks only at the total number of goals scored by both teams in normal time. Over 1.5 needs two or more goals. Who scores them does not matter, and extra time does not count.
Our model predicts each team's expected goals from its attacking strength and the opponent's defensive record, adjusted for home advantage and recent form. It then spreads those expectations across every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, applies a small correction for low-scoring draws, and adds up every scoreline that lands over the 1.5 line.
To convert the percentage into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by it: 60% becomes 1.67 and 45% becomes 2.22. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin. A 70% over still misses roughly three times in ten, which is exactly what a calibrated model should do. The list below is ranked from the highest probability to the lowest.
New to this? Read: What does Over 1.5 goals mean? · Which league has the most goals?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Frequently asked questions
- How often does Over 1.5 land in the competitions we cover?
- Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 1,162 finished with over 1.5 goals (79%). Last season: 3,200 of 4,195 (76%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
- How is the Over 1.5 probability calculated?
- Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
- What is the most likely Over 1.5 pick Fri, 23 Oct 2026?
- Stuttgart v Gladbach at 86% (fair odds 1.16). Over 1.5 in all 6 Gladbach games this season. A 86% pick still fails about 1 time in 10.
- How accurate are your Over 1.5 predictions?
- Our Over 1.5 picks: 79% correct from 217 graded matches (back-test 75% from 18,729). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.