Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End FC prediction

Championship · Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK

Full-time: Wrexham AFC 4–1 Preston North End FC (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK). Before kick-off the model gave Wrexham AFC a 54% chance of winning, and the exact score 4–1 a 3% chance. The outcome the model rated most likely happened.

5 of 7 markets graded correct. See the full public record.

How each market was graded

1X2 (match result): pick home (54%)Correct
Both teams to score: pick yes (54%)Correct
Correct score: pick 1-1 (11%)Incorrect
Double chance: pick 1X (78%)Correct
Over/Under 1.5: pick over (79%)Correct
Over/Under 2.5: pick over (55%)Correct
Over/Under 3.5: pick under (67%)Incorrect

Published before kick-off, unchanged

Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End FC prediction (Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 15:00 UK): Wrexham AFC 54% · Draw 24% · Preston North End FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.80–1.07. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%).

Published Fri, 9 Oct 2026, 21:53 UK · Updated Sun, 18 Oct 2026, 01:45 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Wrexham vs Preston NE pre-match preview

Wrexham (14th, 14 pts) host Preston NE (24th, 4 pts) in the Championship. Wrexham have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDWLD) and Preston NE 1 point from 5 (LLDLL). Wrexham: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model makes Wrexham clear favourites at 54%, with Preston NE at 22%. Expected goals are 1.80 for Wrexham and 1.07 for Preston NE, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).

Both teams scoring looks less likely than usual: 54%, against 64% across the Championship.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 55%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Wrexham AFC vs Preston North End FC?

Wrexham AFC are clear favourites at 54%, with Preston North End FC at 22%. Recent form: Wrexham AFC LDWLDD, Preston North End FC LLDLLW (latest first).

Preston NE lost 5 of 6 away games this season.

Wrexham AFC

54%

Draw

24%

Preston North End FC

22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 55% and Under 2.5 is 45%.

Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Preston NE away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	79%	21%	1.27
2.5 goals	55%	45%	1.82
3.5 goals	33%	67%	3.07

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Wrexham AFC score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Preston North End FC in about 66%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 6 Wrexham home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.85
No	46%	2.17

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Wrexham AFC win	54%	1.85
Draw	24%	4.19
Preston North End FC win	22%	4.53
Over 2.5	55%	1.82
Under 2.5	45%	2.22

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.9 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Wrexham AFC goals (rows) × Preston North End FC goals (columns)
Wrexham \ Preston	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	10%	11%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	9%	10%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	6%	6%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	2%	3%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

11%

2-1

10%

1-0

10%

2-0

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Wrexham and Preston NE played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Wrexham, last 5

Wrexham, last 5 at home

Preston NE, last 5

Preston NE, last 5 away

Current streaks

Wrexham: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Preston NE have not won in their last 6 league games.
Wrexham: both teams scored in each of their last 4 league games.
Preston NE have lost each of their last 3 league games.

Championship games only, runs of three or more. Wrexham and Preston NE.

How Wrexham and Preston NE compare this season

Stat	Wrexham (home, 6)	Preston NE (away, 6)	Championship average
Over 1.5	100% (6/6)	83% (5/6)	77%
Over 2.5	67% (4/6)	83% (5/6)	61%
Over 3.5	17% (1/6)	50% (3/6)	36%
BTTS	100% (6/6)	67% (4/6)	64%
Win %	33% (2/6)	0% (0/6)	39% home · 33% away
Goals for per game	1.67	0.83	1.44
Goals against per game	1.33	2.50	1.44

Championship average from 132 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Championship table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Wrexham	14	14	11
Preston NE	24	4	11

Full Championship table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Wrexham 1 win, 1 draw, Preston NE 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 2 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Mon, 29 Dec 2025	Championship	Wrexham v Preston NE	2–1
Sat, 6 Dec 2025	Championship	Preston NE v Wrexham	1–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Wrexham v Preston NE?: Our model makes Wrexham the more likely winner at 54%: Wrexham 54%, draw 24%, Preston NE 22%. Preston NE lost 5 of 6 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Wrexham v Preston NE?: Over 2.5 goals is 55% and under 2.5 is 45%, with expected goals of 2.9. Over 2.5 in 5 of 6 Preston NE away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Wrexham and Preston NE played recently?: Latest first: Wrexham LDWLD, Preston NE LLDLL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Championship predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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