Juventus FC vs SSC Napoli prediction

Serie A · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK

Juventus FC vs SSC Napoli prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK): Juventus FC 44% · Draw 28% · SSC Napoli 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.38–1.04. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 50%, No 50%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Juventus vs Napoli preview

Juventus (9th, 11 pts) host Napoli (10th, 10 pts) in the Serie A. Juventus have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDWLD) and Napoli 7 points from 5 (WLLWD). Juventus: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Our model favours Juventus at 44% to Napoli's 28%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Juventus and 1.04 for Napoli, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Juventus won 1, Napoli won 3 and 1 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Juventus FC vs SSC Napoli?

Juventus FC are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a SSC Napoli win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Juventus FC LDWLDW, SSC Napoli WLLWDW (latest first).

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Juventus FC

44%

Draw

28%

SSC Napoli

28%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.

Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Juventus home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	70%	30%	1.43
2.5 goals	44%	56%	2.30
3.5 goals	23%	77%	4.44

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 50% chance: Juventus FC score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and SSC Napoli in about 65%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	50%	1.99
No	50%	2.01

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Juventus FC win	44%	2.26
Draw	28%	3.58
SSC Napoli win	28%	3.60
Over 2.5	44%	2.30
Under 2.5	56%	1.77

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Juventus FC goals (rows) × SSC Napoli goals (columns)
Juventus \ SSC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
1	12%	13%	7%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	9%	5%	2%	0%	0%
3	4%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

12%

0-0

2-1

0-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Juventus and Napoli played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Juventus, last 5

Juventus, last 5 at home

Napoli, last 5

Napoli, last 5 away

Current streaks

Juventus: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Juventus and Napoli.

How Juventus and Napoli compare this season

Stat	Juventus (home, 4)	Napoli (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	75% (3/4)	85%
Over 2.5	25% (1/4)	25% (1/4)	60%
Over 3.5	0% (0/4)	25% (1/4)	31%
BTTS	25% (1/4)	50% (2/4)	57%
Win %	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	1.25	1.25	1.50
Goals against per game	1.00	1.25	1.50

Serie A average from 75 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Juventus	9	11	7
Napoli	10	10	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Juventus 1 win, 1 draw, Napoli 3 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 25 Jan 2026	Serie A	Juventus v Napoli	3–0
Sun, 7 Dec 2025	Serie A	Napoli v Juventus	2–1
Sat, 25 Jan 2025	Serie A	Napoli v Juventus	2–1
Sat, 21 Sept 2024	Serie A	Juventus v Napoli	0–0
Sun, 3 Mar 2024	Serie A	Napoli v Juventus	2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Juventus v Napoli?: Our model makes Juventus the more likely winner at 44%: Juventus 44%, draw 28%, Napoli 28%. Model expects 2.4 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Juventus v Napoli?: Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 3 of 4 Juventus home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Juventus and Napoli played recently?: Latest first: Juventus LDWLD, Napoli WLLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.576%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	24%	51%	46%	72%	24%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	64%	37%	18%	47%	37%	64%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.574%	26%	26%	48%	74%	49%	27%	52%	49%	74%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.575%	32%	27%	42%	75%	50%	28%	53%	50%	75%	28%	53%

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