Eredivisie · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK
SC Heerenveen vs NEC prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 17:45 UK): SC Heerenveen 40% · Draw 24% · NEC 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.66–1.58. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Heerenveen vs NEC preview
Heerenveen (9th, 12 pts) host NEC (12th, 10 pts) in the Eredivisie. Heerenveen have taken 7 points from their last 5 games (WLWDL) and NEC 4 points from 5 (DDDLD). NEC: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 32 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Heerenveen 40%, NEC 36%. Expected goals are 1.66 for Heerenveen and 1.58 for NEC, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
Over 2.5 goals is 63%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 5 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, NEC won 2 and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 63%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win SC Heerenveen vs NEC?
This is close to a coin flip: SC Heerenveen 40%, NEC 36%, with the draw at 24%. Recent form: SC Heerenveen WLWDLD, NEC DDDLDL (latest first).
NEC have not won in their last 6 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 63% and Under 2.5 is 37%.
Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 NEC games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 84% | 16% | 1.20 |
| 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | 1.59 |
| 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | 2.47 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 61% chance: SC Heerenveen score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and NEC in about 79%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 8 of 9 NEC games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.54 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 40% | 2.52 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 |
| NEC win | 36% | 2.76 |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.2 total goals.
| SC \ NEC | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 6% | 11% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 5% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 3% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Heerenveen and NEC played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- NEC: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 32 league games.
- NEC have not won in their last 6 league games.
- Heerenveen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- NEC: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
- NEC are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Heerenveen and NEC.
How Heerenveen and NEC compare this season
| Stat | Heerenveen (home, 5) | NEC (away, 4) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 60% (3/5) | 100% (4/4) | 92% |
| Over 2.5 | 40% (2/5) | 75% (3/4) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% (2/5) | 50% (2/4) | 64% |
| BTTS | 20% (1/5) | 75% (3/4) | 73% |
| Win % | 40% (2/5) | 50% (2/4) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.94 |
| Goals against per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.94 |
Eredivisie average from 85 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| NEC | 12 | 10 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Heerenveen 2 wins, 1 draw, NEC 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 22 Mar 2026 | Eredivisie | NEC v Heerenveen | 2–2 |
| Sun, 21 Sept 2025 | Eredivisie | Heerenveen v NEC | 3–2 |
| Sun, 27 Apr 2025 | Eredivisie | Heerenveen v NEC | 1–0 |
| Sat, 19 Oct 2024 | Eredivisie | NEC v Heerenveen | 3–0 |
| Sun, 10 Mar 2024 | Eredivisie | NEC v Heerenveen | 2–0 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Heerenveen v NEC?
- Our model makes Heerenveen the more likely winner at 40%: Heerenveen 40%, draw 24%, NEC 36%. NEC have not won in their last 6 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Heerenveen v NEC?
- Over 2.5 goals is 63% and under 2.5 is 37%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in 7 of 9 NEC games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Heerenveen and NEC played recently?
- Latest first: Heerenveen WLWDL, NEC DDDLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- SC Heerenveen
- NEC
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 32% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 64% | 85% | 42% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
15:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 59% |
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.577% | 42% | 26% | 32% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 57% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
| 15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.588% | 75% | 15% | 10% | 71% | 88% | 50% | 58% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier LgPremier League  | O1.584% | 46% | 25% | 29% | 62% | 84% | 40% | 60% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.574% | 33% | 27% | 40% | 48% | 73% | 26% | 53% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | U3.577% | 48% | 27% | 25% | 44% | 70% | 23% | 51% |
12:30 · EFL ChampChampionship  | O1.578% | 55% | 24% | 22% | 55% | 78% | 32% | 54% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.579% | 23% | 24% | 54% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 55% |