ProbaPredict

Over 3.5 goals predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026

Football predictions for over 3.5 goals, ranked from the highest model probability down.

Over 3.5 goals means the match has 4 or more goals in normal time, whoever scores them: 3-1, 2-2 and 4-0 all count. What does Over 2.5 goals mean?

46% is the highest Over 3.5 goals probability Fri, 23 Oct 2026: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.

Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 526 finished with over 3.5 goals (36%). Last season: 1,267 of 4,195 (30%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.

These are Fri, 23 Oct 2026's football predictions for over 3.5 goals, ranked by the model's probability. A 70% pick still fails three times in ten, so read the percentage, not just the position. Our 60%+ Over 3.5 goals picks have been correct 54% of the time over the last 30 days (13 graded).

TodayTomorrowWeekendYesterday's record

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Over 3.5 goals predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026, ranked by probability
Fair odds
Fri, 23 Oct 2026
FT · BundesligaVfB Stuttgart crestStuttgart2Borussia Mönchengladbach crestGladbach3Model expects 3.5 total goals46%2.18O1.586%✓65%✕19%✕16%✓68%✓86%✓46%✓61%✓
FT · EredivisieGo Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead3Telstar 1963 crestTelstar2Over 3.5 in 7 of 9 Go Ahead games this season40%2.47O1.584%✓51%✓23%✕26%✕63%✓84%✓40%✓60%✓
FT · EFL ChampBolton Wanderers FC crestBolton1Middlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough5Model expects 3.0 total goals34%2.91O1.580%✓33%✕25%✕42%✓57%✓80%✓34%✓56%✓
FT · Premier LgIpswich Town FC crestIpswich Town1Nottingham Forest FC crestNottingham1Over 3.5 in 2 of 3 Nottingham away games this season33%3.04O1.579%✓30%✕26%✓44%✕55%✕79%✓33%✕58%✓
FT · Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 crestBrest1OGC Nice crestNice2Over 3.5 in 2 of 3 Brest home games this season30%3.31O1.577%✓45%✕26%✕29%✓52%✓77%✓30%✕56%✓
FT · Serie ATorino FC crestTorino3AC Monza crestMonza2Over 3.5 in 3 of 4 Monza away games this season27%3.65O1.575%✓46%✓26%✕28%✕49%✓75%✓27%✓52%✓
FT · PrimeiraVitória SC crestVitória5CS Marítimo crestMarítimo0Model expects 2.6 total goals27%3.69O1.574%✓49%✓26%✕25%✕49%✓74%✓27%✓51%✕
FT · La LigaDeportivo Alavés crestAlavés1Málaga CF crestMálaga1Model expects 2.5 total goals25%3.99U3.575%✓50%✕26%✓23%✕47%✕72%✓25%✕52%✓

Our Over 3.5 picks: back-test 51% correct from 556 matches (out-of-sample, past seasons). See the accuracy record.

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What does Over 3.5 goals mean in football predictions?

Over 3.5 goals looks only at the total number of goals scored by both teams in normal time. Over 3.5 needs four or more goals. Who scores them does not matter, and extra time does not count.

Our model predicts each team's expected goals from its attacking strength and the opponent's defensive record, adjusted for home advantage and recent form. It then spreads those expectations across every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, applies a small correction for low-scoring draws, and adds up every scoreline that lands over the 3.5 line.

To convert the percentage into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by it: 60% becomes 1.67 and 45% becomes 2.22. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin. A 70% over still misses roughly three times in ten, which is exactly what a calibrated model should do. The list below is ranked from the highest probability to the lowest.

New to this? Read: What does Over 2.5 goals mean? · Which league has the most goals?

These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.

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Frequently asked questions

How often does Over 3.5 land in the competitions we cover?
Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 526 finished with over 3.5 goals (36%). Last season: 1,267 of 4,195 (30%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
How is the Over 3.5 probability calculated?
Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
What is the most likely Over 3.5 pick Fri, 23 Oct 2026?
Stuttgart v Gladbach at 46% (fair odds 2.18). Model expects 3.5 total goals. A 46% pick still fails about 5 times in 10.
How accurate are your Over 3.5 predictions?
Our Over 3.5 picks: back-test 51% correct from 556 matches (out-of-sample, past seasons). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.