ProbaPredict

Away win predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026

Football predictions for away win, ranked from the highest model probability down.

A away win means the away team has more goals after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties don't count. What is 1X2 in football betting?

44% is the highest Away win probability Fri, 23 Oct 2026: Ipswich Town FC vs Nottingham Forest FC, from ProbaPredict's statistical model.

Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 458 finished as away wins (31%). Last season: 1,270 of 4,195 (30%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.

These are Fri, 23 Oct 2026's football predictions for away win, ranked by the model's probability. A 70% pick still fails three times in ten, so read the percentage, not just the position. Our 60%+ Away win picks have been correct 52% of the time over the last 30 days (67 graded).

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Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Away win predictions Fri, 23 Oct 2026, ranked by probability
Fair odds
Fri, 23 Oct 2026
FT · Premier LgIpswich Town FC crestIpswich Town1Nottingham Forest FC crestNottingham1Model expects 2.9 total goals44%2.27O1.579%✓30%✕26%✓44%✕55%✕79%✓33%✕58%✓
FT · EFL ChampBolton Wanderers FC crestBolton1Middlesbrough FC crestMiddlesbrough5Bolton lost 3 of 5 home games this season42%2.38O1.580%✓33%✕25%✕42%✓57%✓80%✓34%✓56%✓
FT · Ligue 1Stade Brestois 29 crestBrest1OGC Nice crestNice2Model expects 2.8 total goals29%3.43O1.577%✓45%✕26%✕29%✓52%✓77%✓30%✕56%✓
FT · Serie ATorino FC crestTorino3AC Monza crestMonza2Torino lost 2 of 3 home games this season28%3.58O1.575%✓46%✓26%✕28%✕49%✓75%✓27%✓52%✓
FT · EredivisieGo Ahead Eagles crestGo Ahead3Telstar 1963 crestTelstar2Go Ahead have not won in their last 6 league games26%3.81O1.584%✓51%✓23%✕26%✕63%✓84%✓40%✓60%✓
FT · PrimeiraVitória SC crestVitória5CS Marítimo crestMarítimo0Vitória have not won in their last 5 league games25%4.02O1.574%✓49%✓26%✕25%✕49%✓74%✓27%✓51%✕
FT · La LigaDeportivo Alavés crestAlavés1Málaga CF crestMálaga1Alavés have not won in their last 5 league games23%4.28U3.575%✓50%✕26%✓23%✕47%✕72%✓25%✕52%✓
FT · BundesligaVfB Stuttgart crestStuttgart2Borussia Mönchengladbach crestGladbach3Model expects 3.5 total goals16%6.33O1.586%✓65%✕19%✕16%✓68%✓86%✓46%✓61%✓

Our Away win picks: 52% correct from 67 graded matches (back-test 46% from 5,543). See the accuracy record.

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What does away win mean in football predictions?

A away win pick is about one thing: the away team finishing the 90 minutes, plus stoppage time, with more goals than its opponent. Extra time and penalties do not count. Our model estimates this by rating every team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting newer matches more heavily and adding a measured home advantage.

From those ratings it builds a grid of every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10, gives each one a probability, then adds up all the scorelines where the away side wins. That total is the percentage you see beside each match.

To turn a probability into fair decimal odds, divide 100 by the percentage. A 50% chance equals fair odds of 2.00; 40% equals 2.50; 25% equals 4.00. Fair odds contain no bookmaker margin, so real prices are usually a little shorter. A away win at 65% still fails about one time in three, so treat every number as a likelihood, not a promise. The ranking below runs from the highest away win probability to the lowest.

New to this? Read: What is 1X2 in football betting? · What is draw no bet?

These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.

More football predictions

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Frequently asked questions

How often does Away win land in the competitions we cover?
Out of 1,479 matches played this season (last 12 months for internationals) across the 17 competitions we cover, 458 finished as away wins (31%). Last season: 1,270 of 4,195 (30%), averaging 2.79 goals per game.
How is the Away win probability calculated?
Our model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results, adds home advantage, and builds a probability for every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10. The market probability adds up every scoreline that wins it.
What is the most likely Away win pick Fri, 23 Oct 2026?
Ipswich Town v Nottingham at 44% (fair odds 2.27). Model expects 2.9 total goals. A 44% pick still fails about 6 times in 10.
How accurate are your Away win predictions?
Our Away win picks: 52% correct from 67 graded matches (back-test 46% from 5,543). Every ProbaPredict pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose.