Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo prediction

La Liga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 15:15 UK): Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 35% · Draw 29% · RC Celta de Vigo 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.14–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 51%, No 49%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (11%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta preview

Rayo Vallecano (17th, 9 pts) host Celta (9th, 11 pts) in the La Liga. Rayo Vallecano have taken 5 points from their last 5 games (LDDWL) and Celta 9 points from 5 (DWDWD). Rayo Vallecano: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 15 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Rayo Vallecano 35%, Celta 36%. A draw is more likely than usual at 29%; 28% of La Liga matches end level. Expected goals are 1.14 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Celta, and the most likely score is 1-1 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 59%, while 57% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 2, Celta won 1 and 2 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 59%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo?

This is close to a coin flip: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 35%, RC Celta de Vigo 36%, with the draw at 29%. Recent form: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid LDDWLW, RC Celta de Vigo DWDWDD (latest first).

Celta are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

35%

Draw

29%

RC Celta de Vigo

36%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 59%; Over 2.5 is 41%.

Under 2.5 in all 4 Celta away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	68%	32%	1.48
2.5 goals	41%	59%	2.46
3.5 goals	20%	80%	4.94

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 51% chance: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid score in about 68% of simulated outcomes and RC Celta de Vigo in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 8 of 9 Rayo Vallecano games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	51%	1.95
No	49%	2.06

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win	35%	2.88
Draw	29%	3.42
RC Celta de Vigo win	36%	2.77
Over 2.5	41%	2.46
Under 2.5	59%	1.68

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.3 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid goals (rows) × RC Celta de Vigo goals (columns)
Rayo \ RC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10%	11%	7%	3%	1%	0%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%	1%	0%
2	6%	8%	4%	2%	1%	0%
3	2%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

14%

0-1

11%

1-0

11%

0-0

10%

1-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Rayo Vallecano and Celta played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Rayo Vallecano, last 5

Rayo Vallecano, last 5 at home

Celta, last 5

Celta, last 5 away

Current streaks

Rayo Vallecano: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 15 league games.
Celta are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.
Rayo Vallecano have not won in their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Rayo Vallecano and Celta.

How Rayo Vallecano and Celta compare this season

Stat	Rayo Vallecano (home, 4)	Celta (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (4/4)	25% (1/4)	77%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	0% (0/4)	57%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	37%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	59%
Win %	50% (2/4)	0% (0/4)	44% home · 29% away
Goals for per game	1.50	0.25	1.51
Goals against per game	1.75	0.25	1.51

La Liga average from 98 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Rayo Vallecano	17	9	9
Celta	9	11	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 2 wins, 2 draws, Celta 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 18 Jan 2026	La Liga	Celta v Rayo Vallecano	3–0
Sun, 21 Sept 2025	La Liga	Rayo Vallecano v Celta	1–1
Sun, 18 May 2025	La Liga	Celta v Rayo Vallecano	1–2
Fri, 10 Jan 2025	La Liga	Rayo Vallecano v Celta	2–1
Sun, 31 Mar 2024	La Liga	Celta v Rayo Vallecano	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Rayo Vallecano v Celta?: Our model makes Celta the more likely winner at 36%: Rayo Vallecano 35%, draw 29%, Celta 36%. Celta are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano v Celta?: Over 2.5 goals is 41% and under 2.5 is 59%, with expected goals of 2.3. Under 2.5 in all 4 Celta away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Rayo Vallecano and Celta played recently?: Latest first: Rayo Vallecano LDDWL, Celta DWDWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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Mon, 26 Oct 2026
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