FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés prediction

La Liga · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK

FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 20:00 UK): FC Barcelona 79% · Draw 13% · Deportivo Alavés 8%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%. Most likely score: 2-0. Expected goals 2.90–0.83. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Mon, 26 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Barça vs Alavés preview

Barça (1st, 27 pts) host Alavés (7th, 12 pts) in the La Liga. Barça have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (LLWWW) and Alavés 2 points from 5 (DLLDL), so Barça arrive in clearly better form. Barça: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.

Our model makes Barça clear favourites at 79%, with Alavés at 8%. Expected goals are 2.90 for Barça and 0.83 for Alavés, and the most likely score is 2-0 (10%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 72%, against a La Liga average of 57%. In their last 5 meetings, Barça won 4 and Alavés won 1; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Barça to win is the model's clearest call at 79%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés?

FC Barcelona are clear favourites at 79%, with Deportivo Alavés at 8%. Recent form: FC Barcelona LLWWWW, Deportivo Alavés DLLDLL (latest first).

Barça won 4 of 5 home games this season.

FC Barcelona

79%

Draw

13%

Deportivo Alavés

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 72%.

Over 2.5 in 9 of 10 Barça games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	89%	11%	1.12
2.5 goals	72%	28%	1.39
3.5 goals	51%	49%	1.95

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: FC Barcelona score in about 95% of simulated outcomes and Deportivo Alavés in about 60%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Alavés away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	54%	1.86
No	46%	2.16

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
FC Barcelona win	79%	1.26
Draw	13%	7.62
Deportivo Alavés win	8%	13.20
Over 2.5	72%	1.39
Under 2.5	28%	3.58

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: FC Barcelona goals (rows) × Deportivo Alavés goals (columns)
FC \ Deportivo	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
1	7%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%
2	10%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%
3	10%	8%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	7%	6%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	7% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

2-0

10%

3-0

10%

2-1

3-1

4-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Barça and Alavés played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Current streaks

Barça: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 12 league games.
Barça: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
Alavés have not won in their last 6 league games.
Alavés: both teams scored in each of their last 3 league games.
Alavés: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Barça and Alavés.

How Barça and Alavés compare this season

Stat	Barça (home, 5)	Alavés (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	75% (3/4)	77%
Over 2.5	80% (4/5)	50% (2/4)	57%
Over 3.5	40% (2/5)	0% (0/4)	37%
BTTS	60% (3/5)	75% (3/4)	59%
Win %	80% (4/5)	0% (0/4)	44% home · 29% away
Goals for per game	3.60	0.75	1.51
Goals against per game	1.20	1.25	1.51

La Liga average from 98 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Barça	1	27	9
Alavés	7	12	10

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Barça 4 wins, 0 draws, Alavés 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Wed, 13 May 2026	La Liga	Alavés v Barça	1–0
Sat, 29 Nov 2025	La Liga	Barça v Alavés	3–1
Sun, 2 Feb 2025	La Liga	Barça v Alavés	1–0
Sun, 6 Oct 2024	La Liga	Alavés v Barça	0–3
Sat, 3 Feb 2024	La Liga	Alavés v Barça	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Barça v Alavés?: Our model makes Barça the more likely winner at 79%: Barça 79%, draw 13%, Alavés 8%. Barça won 4 of 5 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Barça v Alavés?: Over 2.5 goals is 72% and under 2.5 is 28%, with expected goals of 3.7. Over 2.5 in 9 of 10 Barça games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 2-0 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Barça and Alavés played recently?: Latest first: Barça LLWWW, Alavés DLLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Mon, 26 Oct 2026
20:00 · La LigaLa LigaSevillavOsasuna	O1.575%	45%	26%	29%	75%	50%	28%	54%	50%	75%	28%	54%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:00 · La LigaLa LigaVillarrealvEspanyol	O1.582%	60%	22%	19%	82%	59%	37%	55%	59%	82%	37%	55%
Sat, 31 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaLevantevAtleti	O1.579%	22%	24%	54%	79%	56%	34%	55%	56%	79%	34%	55%
15:15 · La LigaLa LigaRayo VallecanovCelta	U3.580%	35%	29%	36%	68%	41%	20%	51%	41%	68%	20%	51%
17:30 · La LigaLa LigaReal BetisvMálaga	O1.581%	64%	21%	15%	81%	59%	36%	54%	59%	81%	36%	54%
Sun, 1 Nov 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaGetafevSevilla	U3.586%	36%	32%	32%	59%	32%	14%	48%	32%	59%	14%	48%

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