Paris FC vs AS Monaco FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 16:15 UK

Paris FC vs AS Monaco FC prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 16:15 UK): Paris FC 34% · Draw 26% · AS Monaco FC 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.36–1.48. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 57%, No 43%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Paris vs Monaco preview

Paris (3rd, 14 pts) host Monaco (5th, 14 pts) in the Ligue 1. Paris have taken 10 points from their last 5 games (WLWDW) and Monaco 8 points from 5 (LDWDW).

Our model sees little between the sides: Paris 34%, Monaco 40%. Expected goals are 1.36 for Paris and 1.48 for Monaco, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

Over 2.5 goals is 54%, below the Ligue 1 rate of 65%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Ligue 1 match.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 57%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Paris FC vs AS Monaco FC?

This is close to a coin flip: Paris FC 34%, AS Monaco FC 40%, with the draw at 26%. Recent form: Paris FC WLWDWW, AS Monaco FC LDWDWW (latest first).

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Paris FC

34%

Draw

26%

AS Monaco FC

40%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 54% and Under 2.5 is 46%.

Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Paris home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	78%	22%	1.28
2.5 goals	54%	46%	1.85
3.5 goals	32%	68%	3.16

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 57% chance: Paris FC score in about 74% of simulated outcomes and AS Monaco FC in about 77%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 12 of 17 Monaco away games last season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	57%	1.76
No	43%	2.32

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Paris FC win	34%	2.92
Draw	26%	3.87
AS Monaco FC win	40%	2.51
Over 2.5	54%	1.85
Under 2.5	46%	2.17

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.8 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Paris FC goals (rows) × AS Monaco FC goals (columns)
Paris \ AS	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
1	8%	12%	9%	4%	2%	0%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	4%	3%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

0-1

2-1

1-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Paris and Monaco played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Paris, last 5

Paris, last 5 at home

Monaco, last 5

Monaco, last 5 away

How Paris and Monaco compare this season

Stat	Paris (home, 4)	Monaco (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	80%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	65%
Over 3.5	25% (1/4)	0% (0/4)	37%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	50% (2/4)	65%
Win %	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	45% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.25	1.00	1.52
Goals against per game	1.00	0.75	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 65 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Paris	3	14	7
Monaco	5	14	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Paris 2 wins, 0 draws, Monaco 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 2; both teams scored in 1 of 2.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Fri, 10 Apr 2026	Ligue 1	Paris v Monaco	4–1
Sat, 1 Nov 2025	Ligue 1	Monaco v Paris	0–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Paris v Monaco?: Our model makes Monaco the more likely winner at 40%: Paris 34%, draw 26%, Monaco 40%. Model expects 2.8 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paris v Monaco?: Over 2.5 goals is 54% and under 2.5 is 46%, with expected goals of 2.8. Over 2.5 in 3 of 4 Paris home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Paris and Monaco played recently?: Latest first: Paris WLWDW, Monaco LDWDW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
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