Real Racing Club de Santander vs Real Madrid CF prediction

La Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK

Real Racing Club de Santander vs Real Madrid CF prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:15 UK): Real Racing Club de Santander 12% · Draw 15% · Real Madrid CF 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%. Most likely score: 1-2. Expected goals 1.18–2.89. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 59%, No 41%. Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (7%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Santander vs Real Madrid preview

Santander (17th, 8 pts) host Real Madrid (3rd, 21 pts) in the La Liga. Santander have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LDLLW) and Real Madrid 12 points from 5 (WWWWL), so Real Madrid arrive in clearly better form. Santander: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.

Our model makes Real Madrid clear favourites at 72%, with Santander at 12%. Expected goals are 1.18 for Santander and 2.89 for Real Madrid, and the most likely score is 1-2 (8%).

Goals are the standout: Over 2.5 is 77%, against a La Liga average of 56%.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 77%, which still fails about 2 times in 10.

Who will win Real Racing Club de Santander vs Real Madrid CF?

Real Madrid CF are clear favourites at 72%, with Real Racing Club de Santander at 12%. Recent form: Real Racing Club de Santander LDLLWL, Real Madrid CF WWWWLW (latest first).

Model expects 4.1 total goals.

Real Racing Club de Santander

12%

Draw

15%

Real Madrid CF

72%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 goals is likely at 77%.

Over 2.5 in all 5 Santander home games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	92%	8%	1.09
2.5 goals	77%	23%	1.30
3.5 goals	58%	42%	1.72

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 59% chance: Real Racing Club de Santander score in about 71% of simulated outcomes and Real Madrid CF in about 94%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in all 5 Santander home games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	59%	1.71
No	41%	2.42

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Real Racing Club de Santander win	12%	8.04
Draw	15%	6.57
Real Madrid CF win	72%	1.38
Over 2.5	77%	1.30
Under 2.5	23%	4.38

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 4.1 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Real Racing Club de Santander goals (rows) × Real Madrid CF goals (columns)
Real \ Real	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	2%	5%	7%	7%	5%	3%
1	2%	6%	8%	8%	6%	3%
2	1%	3%	5%	5%	3%	2%
3	0%	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%
4	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	7% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-2

1-3

0-2

0-3

1-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Santander and Real Madrid played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Santander, last 5

Santander, last 5 at home

Real Madrid, last 5

Real Madrid, last 5 away

Current streaks

Santander: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Santander and Real Madrid.

How Santander and Real Madrid compare this season

Stat	Santander (home, 5)	Real Madrid (away, 4)	La Liga average
Over 1.5	100% (5/5)	75% (3/4)	77%
Over 2.5	100% (5/5)	75% (3/4)	56%
Over 3.5	60% (3/5)	25% (1/4)	37%
BTTS	100% (5/5)	75% (3/4)	60%
Win %	60% (3/5)	50% (2/4)	44% home · 29% away
Goals for per game	2.20	1.50	1.52
Goals against per game	1.60	1.50	1.52

La Liga average from 94 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Santander	17	8	9
Real Madrid	3	21	9

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in our records.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Santander v Real Madrid?: Our model makes Real Madrid the more likely winner at 72%: Santander 12%, draw 15%, Real Madrid 72%. Model expects 4.1 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Santander v Real Madrid?: Over 2.5 goals is 77% and under 2.5 is 23%, with expected goals of 4.1. Over 2.5 in all 5 Santander home games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-2 at 8%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Santander and Real Madrid played recently?: Latest first: Santander LDLLW, Real Madrid WWWWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaLa LigaAthleticvGetafe	U3.590%	45%	33%	22%	53%	26%	10%	46%	26%	53%	10%	46%
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20:00 · La LigaLa LigaVillarrealvEspanyol	O1.582%	60%	22%	19%	82%	59%	37%	55%	59%	82%	37%	55%

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