AC Milan vs FC Internazionale Milano prediction

Serie A · Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK

AC Milan vs FC Internazionale Milano prediction (Sat, 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UK): AC Milan 32% · Draw 25% · FC Internazionale Milano 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.38–1.62. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 55%, No 45%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

Published Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK · Updated Sat, 24 Oct 2026, 07:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Milan vs Inter preview

Milan (4th, 15 pts) host Inter (1st, 19 pts) in the Serie A. Milan have taken 9 points from their last 5 games (WDWDD) and Inter 10 points from 5 (WWLWD). Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league games.

Our model favours Inter at 43% to Milan's 32%. Expected goals are 1.38 for Milan and 1.62 for Inter, and the most likely score is 1-1 (12%).

The goal markets sit close to the Serie A norm: Over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 55%. In their last 5 meetings, Milan won 3, Inter won 1 and 1 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win AC Milan vs FC Internazionale Milano?

FC Internazionale Milano are favoured at 43%, but the draw and a AC Milan win together still account for 57%. Recent form: AC Milan WDWDDW, FC Internazionale Milano WWLWDW (latest first).

Inter won 2 of 3 away games this season.

AC Milan

32%

Draw

25%

FC Internazionale Milano

43%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.

Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Inter games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	80%	20%	1.24
2.5 goals	58%	42%	1.74
3.5 goals	35%	65%	2.84

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 55% chance: AC Milan score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and FC Internazionale Milano in about 80%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Milan games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	55%	1.82
No	45%	2.21

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
AC Milan win	32%	3.09
Draw	25%	4.01
FC Internazionale Milano win	43%	2.34
Over 2.5	58%	1.74
Under 2.5	42%	2.36

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.0 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: AC Milan goals (rows) × FC Internazionale Milano goals (columns)
AC \ FC	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	8%	7%	4%	1%	0%
1	7%	12%	9%	5%	2%	1%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%	1%	0%
3	2%	4%	3%	2%	1%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

12%

1-2

2-1

0-1

0-2

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Milan and Inter played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Milan, last 5

Milan, last 5 at home

Inter, last 5

Inter, last 5 away

Current streaks

Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league games.
Milan: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 11 league games.
Milan are unbeaten in their last 7 league games.
Inter: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Inter: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Milan and Inter.

How Milan and Inter compare this season

Stat	Milan (home, 3)	Inter (away, 3)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	85%
Over 2.5	67% (2/3)	67% (2/3)	61%
Over 3.5	33% (1/3)	67% (2/3)	31%
BTTS	33% (1/3)	67% (2/3)	58%
Win %	100% (3/3)	67% (2/3)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.67	2.00	1.49
Goals against per game	0.67	1.00	1.49

Serie A average from 71 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Milan	4	15	7
Inter	1	19	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Milan 3 wins, 1 draw, Inter 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sun, 8 Mar 2026	Serie A	Milan v Inter	1–0
Sun, 23 Nov 2025	Serie A	Inter v Milan	0–1
Sun, 2 Feb 2025	Serie A	Milan v Inter	1–1
Sun, 22 Sept 2024	Serie A	Inter v Milan	1–2
Mon, 22 Apr 2024	Serie A	Milan v Inter	1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Milan v Inter?: Our model makes Inter the more likely winner at 43%: Milan 32%, draw 25%, Inter 43%. Inter won 2 of 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Milan v Inter?: Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in 6 of 7 Inter games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Milan and Inter played recently?: Latest first: Milan WDWDD, Inter WWLWD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.575%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	25%	51%	46%	72%	25%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	65%	37%	18%	47%	37%	65%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.575%	26%	26%	48%	75%	49%	27%	52%	49%	75%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.576%	32%	27%	41%	76%	51%	29%	53%	51%	76%	29%	53%

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