Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC prediction

Ligue 1 · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK

Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 19:45 UK): Olympique de Marseille 54% · Draw 23% · Toulouse FC 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.96–1.21. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Marseille vs Toulouse preview

Marseille (10th, 9 pts) host Toulouse (12th, 9 pts) in the Ligue 1. Marseille have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WWLLL) and Toulouse 8 points from 5 (WDWDL). Toulouse: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model makes Marseille clear favourites at 54%, with Toulouse at 23%. Expected goals are 1.96 for Marseille and 1.21 for Toulouse, and the most likely score is 1-1 (10%).

The goal markets sit close to the Ligue 1 norm: Over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 58%. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 3, Toulouse didn't win any and 2 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 61%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse FC?

Olympique de Marseille are clear favourites at 54%, with Toulouse FC at 23%. Recent form: Olympique de Marseille WWLLLL, Toulouse FC WDWDLD (latest first).

Marseille won 11 of 17 home games last season.

Olympique de Marseille

54%

Draw

23%

Toulouse FC

23%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 61% and Under 2.5 is 39%.

Over 2.5 in all 4 Toulouse away games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	83%	17%	1.21
2.5 goals	61%	39%	1.63
3.5 goals	39%	61%	2.56

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: Olympique de Marseille score in about 86% of simulated outcomes and Toulouse FC in about 71%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 3 of 4 Toulouse away games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.72
No	42%	2.39

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Olympique de Marseille win	54%	1.84
Draw	23%	4.43
Toulouse FC win	23%	4.35
Over 2.5	61%	1.63
Under 2.5	39%	2.59

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 3.2 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Olympique de Marseille goals (rows) × Toulouse FC goals (columns)
Olympique \ Toulouse	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5%	5%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%	1%	0%
3	5%	6%	4%	2%	0%	0%
4	3%	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
Other	2% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

10%

2-1

10%

2-0

1-0

3-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Marseille and Toulouse played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Marseille, last 5

Marseille, last 5 at home

Toulouse, last 5

Toulouse, last 5 away

Current streaks

Toulouse: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Toulouse: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
Marseille: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Ligue 1 games only, runs of three or more. Marseille and Toulouse.

How Marseille and Toulouse compare this season

Stat	Marseille (home, 3)	Toulouse (away, 4)	Ligue 1 average
Over 1.5	100% (3/3)	100% (4/4)	80%
Over 2.5	100% (3/3)	100% (4/4)	65%
Over 3.5	67% (2/3)	75% (3/4)	37%
BTTS	67% (2/3)	75% (3/4)	65%
Win %	33% (1/3)	25% (1/4)	45% home · 32% away
Goals for per game	2.33	2.25	1.52
Goals against per game	1.67	1.50	1.52

Ligue 1 average from 65 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Ligue 1 table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Marseille	10	9	7
Toulouse	12	9	7

Full Ligue 1 table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Marseille 3 wins, 2 draws, Toulouse 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 4 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 7 Mar 2026	Ligue 1	Toulouse v Marseille	0–1
Sat, 29 Nov 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille v Toulouse	2–2
Sun, 6 Apr 2025	Ligue 1	Marseille v Toulouse	3–2
Sat, 31 Aug 2024	Ligue 1	Toulouse v Marseille	1–3
Sun, 21 Apr 2024	Ligue 1	Toulouse v Marseille	2–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Marseille v Toulouse?: Our model makes Marseille the more likely winner at 54%: Marseille 54%, draw 23%, Toulouse 23%. Marseille won 11 of 17 home games last season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marseille v Toulouse?: Over 2.5 goals is 61% and under 2.5 is 39%, with expected goals of 3.2. Over 2.5 in all 4 Toulouse away games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 10%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Marseille and Toulouse played recently?: Latest first: Marseille WWLLL, Toulouse WDWDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Ligue 1 predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
14:00 · Ligue 1Ligue 1MonacovLille	O1.577%	44%	26%	30%	77%	52%	30%	56%	52%	77%	30%	56%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1MarseillevLe Havre	O1.579%	66%	20%	14%	79%	56%	34%	54%	56%	79%	34%	54%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1AuxerrevLe Mans	O1.575%	45%	27%	29%	75%	49%	27%	55%	49%	75%	27%	55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1ToulousevTroyes	O1.578%	58%	23%	19%	78%	54%	31%	55%	54%	78%	31%	55%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1Stade RennaisvStrasbourg	O1.587%	48%	22%	29%	87%	68%	47%	61%	68%	87%	47%	61%
16:15 · Ligue 1Ligue 1Angers SCOvLorient	U3.577%	29%	28%	43%	71%	45%	23%	54%	45%	71%	23%	54%

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