Serie A · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UK
US Lecce vs Genoa CFC prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 17:00 UK): US Lecce 34% · Draw 32% · Genoa CFC 34%. Over 2.5 goals: 32%. Most likely score: 0-0. Expected goals 0.98–1.00. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 47%, No 53%. Most likely scores: 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Lecce vs Genoa preview
Lecce (12th, 9 pts) host Genoa (17th, 4 pts) in the Serie A. Lecce have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (WLLWL) and Genoa 4 points from 5 (LWLDL). Genoa: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
Our model sees little between the sides: Lecce 34%, Genoa 34%. A draw is more likely than usual at 32%; 17% of Serie A matches end level. Expected goals are 0.98 for Lecce and 1.00 for Genoa, and the most likely score is 0-0 (14%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 68%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Lecce won 1, Genoa won 2 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 68%, which still fails about 3 times in 10.
Who will win US Lecce vs Genoa CFC?
This is close to a coin flip: US Lecce 34%, Genoa CFC 34%, with the draw at 32%. Recent form: US Lecce WLLWLL, Genoa CFC LWLDLL (latest first).
Lecce lost 2 of 3 home games this season.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 68%; Over 2.5 is 32%.
Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Genoa away games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 59% | 41% | 1.68 |
| 2.5 goals | 32% | 68% | 3.14 |
| 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | 7.16 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 47% chance: US Lecce score in about 63% of simulated outcomes and Genoa CFC in about 63%, and both need to happen.
Model expects 2.0 total goals.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | 2.14 |
| No | 53% | 1.88 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| US Lecce win | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 |
| Genoa CFC win | 34% | 2.91 |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.0 total goals.
| US \ Genoa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 1 | 13% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Lecce and Genoa played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Genoa: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.
- Lecce: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
- Lecce: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.
Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Lecce and Genoa.
How Lecce and Genoa compare this season
| Stat | Lecce (home, 3) | Genoa (away, 3) | Serie A average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (3/3) | 67% (2/3) | 85% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (3/3) | 33% (1/3) | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% (2/3) | 0% (0/3) | 31% |
| BTTS | 67% (2/3) | 33% (1/3) | 57% |
| Win % | 33% (1/3) | 0% (0/3) | 48% home · 35% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.50 |
| Goals against per game | 2.67 | 1.67 | 1.50 |
Serie A average from 75 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Serie A table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 12 | 9 | 7 |
| Genoa | 17 | 4 | 7 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Lecce 1 win, 2 draws, Genoa 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 24 May 2026 | Serie A | Lecce v Genoa | 1–0 |
| Sat, 23 Aug 2025 | Serie A | Genoa v Lecce | 0–0 |
| Fri, 14 Mar 2025 | Serie A | Genoa v Lecce | 2–1 |
| Sun, 5 Jan 2025 | Serie A | Lecce v Genoa | 0–0 |
| Sun, 28 Jan 2024 | Serie A | Genoa v Lecce | 2–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Lecce v Genoa?
- Our model makes Genoa the more likely winner at 34%: Lecce 34%, draw 32%, Genoa 34%. Lecce lost 2 of 3 home games this season.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lecce v Genoa?
- Over 2.5 goals is 32% and under 2.5 is 68%, with expected goals of 2.0. Under 2.5 in 2 of 3 Genoa away games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 0-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Lecce and Genoa played recently?
- Latest first: Lecce WLLWL, Genoa LWLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- US Lecce
- Genoa CFC
- Serie A predictions
- Serie A table
- Serie A Home win
- Serie A Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Serie A predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.586% | 72% | 17% | 11% | 67% | 86% | 46% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.579% | 56% | 23% | 20% | 56% | 79% | 34% | 53% |
14:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.576% | 39% | 28% | 33% | 46% | 72% | 24% | 51% |
17:00 · Serie ASerie A  | U3.582% | 18% | 28% | 54% | 37% | 64% | 18% | 47% |
19:45 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.574% | 26% | 26% | 48% | 49% | 74% | 27% | 52% |
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
17:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.575% | 32% | 27% | 42% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 53% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 43% | 24% | 33% | 63% | 84% | 41% | 61% |
11:30 · Serie ASerie A | O1.580% | 61% | 22% | 17% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 52% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.587% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 31% | 58% | 13% | 48% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.582% | 37% | 25% | 38% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.580% | 26% | 24% | 50% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 58% |