SS Lazio vs Cagliari Calcio prediction

Serie A · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UK

SS Lazio vs Cagliari Calcio prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UK): SS Lazio 58% · Draw 25% · Cagliari Calcio 17%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.64–0.77. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 48%, No 52%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (14%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Lazio vs Cagliari preview

Lazio (2nd, 19 pts) host Cagliari (8th, 13 pts) in the Serie A. Lazio have taken 13 points from their last 5 games (WWWDW) and Cagliari 10 points from 5 (LDWWW). Lazio are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.

Our model makes Lazio clear favourites at 58%, with Cagliari at 17%. Expected goals are 1.64 for Lazio and 0.77 for Cagliari, and the most likely score is 1-0 (14%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 57%, while 60% of Serie A matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Lazio won 4, Cagliari didn't win any and 1 ended level; 3 had over 2.5 goals.

Lazio to win is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win SS Lazio vs Cagliari Calcio?

SS Lazio are clear favourites at 58%, with Cagliari Calcio at 17%. Recent form: SS Lazio WWWDWW, Cagliari Calcio LDWWWL (latest first).

Lazio won 3 of 4 home games this season.

SS Lazio

58%

Draw

25%

Cagliari Calcio

17%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 57%; Over 2.5 is 43%.

Under 2.5 in 6 of 8 Cagliari games this season.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	70%	30%	1.43
2.5 goals	43%	57%	2.31
3.5 goals	22%	78%	4.48

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 48% chance: SS Lazio score in about 81% of simulated outcomes and Cagliari Calcio in about 54%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	48%	2.07
No	52%	1.93

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
SS Lazio win	58%	1.73
Draw	25%	3.96
Cagliari Calcio win	17%	5.87
Over 2.5	43%	2.31
Under 2.5	57%	1.76

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.4 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: SS Lazio goals (rows) × Cagliari Calcio goals (columns)
SS \ Cagliari	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9%	7%	3%	1%	0%	0%
1	14%	12%	4%	1%	0%	0%
2	12%	9%	4%	1%	0%	0%
3	7%	5%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	3%	2%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-0

14%

2-0

12%

1-1

12%

0-0

2-1

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Lazio and Cagliari played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Lazio, last 5

Lazio, last 5 at home

Cagliari, last 5

Cagliari, last 5 away

Current streaks

Lazio are unbeaten in their last 9 league games.
Lazio: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 6 league games.
Lazio have won each of their last 4 league games.
Cagliari: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Cagliari have not won in their last 3 league games.
Lazio: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Serie A games only, runs of three or more. Lazio and Cagliari.

How Lazio and Cagliari compare this season

Stat	Lazio (home, 4)	Cagliari (away, 4)	Serie A average
Over 1.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	85%
Over 2.5	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	60%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	25% (1/4)	31%
BTTS	75% (3/4)	25% (1/4)	57%
Win %	75% (3/4)	75% (3/4)	48% home · 35% away
Goals for per game	2.00	1.00	1.50
Goals against per game	1.00	1.25	1.50

Serie A average from 75 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Serie A table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Lazio	2	19	7
Cagliari	8	13	7

Full Serie A table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Lazio 4 wins, 1 draw, Cagliari 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 21 Feb 2026	Serie A	Cagliari v Lazio	0–0
Mon, 3 Nov 2025	Serie A	Lazio v Cagliari	2–0
Mon, 3 Feb 2025	Serie A	Cagliari v Lazio	1–2
Mon, 4 Nov 2024	Serie A	Lazio v Cagliari	2–1
Sat, 10 Feb 2024	Serie A	Cagliari v Lazio	1–3

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Lazio v Cagliari?: Our model makes Lazio the more likely winner at 58%: Lazio 58%, draw 25%, Cagliari 17%. Lazio won 3 of 4 home games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio v Cagliari?: Over 2.5 goals is 43% and under 2.5 is 57%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 6 of 8 Cagliari games this season.
What is the most likely score?: 1-0 at 14%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Lazio and Cagliari played recently?: Latest first: Lazio WWWDW, Cagliari LDWWW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

Upcoming Serie A predictions

Sun, 25 Oct 2026
11:30 · Serie ASerie AIntervFiorentina	O1.586%	72%	17%	11%	86%	67%	46%	53%	67%	86%	46%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AAtalantavFrosinone	O1.579%	56%	23%	20%	79%	56%	34%	53%	56%	79%	34%	53%
14:00 · Serie ASerie AGenoavVenezia	U3.576%	39%	28%	33%	72%	46%	24%	51%	46%	72%	24%	51%
17:00 · Serie ASerie ALeccevJuventus	U3.582%	18%	28%	54%	64%	37%	18%	47%	37%	64%	18%	47%
19:45 · Serie ASerie AUdinesevMilan	O1.574%	26%	26%	48%	74%	49%	27%	52%	49%	74%	27%	52%
Tue, 27 Oct 2026
17:30 · Serie ASerie ASassuolovLazio	O1.575%	32%	27%	42%	75%	50%	28%	53%	50%	75%	28%	53%

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