Eredivisie · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:45 UK
FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 15:45 UK): FC Groningen 52% · Draw 24% · Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.82–1.20. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Groningen vs Sparta preview
Groningen (7th, 14 pts) host Sparta (13th, 9 pts) in the Eredivisie. Groningen have taken 8 points from their last 5 games (LWWDD) and Sparta 5 points from 5 (WDLLD). Groningen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.
Our model favours Groningen at 52% to Sparta's 25%. Expected goals are 1.82 for Groningen and 1.20 for Sparta, and the most likely score is 1-1 (11%).
Over 2.5 goals is 58%, below the Eredivisie rate of 75%, so the model expects fewer goals than a typical Eredivisie match. In their last 5 meetings, Groningen won 1 and Sparta won 4; 1 had over 2.5 goals.
Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
FC Groningen are favoured at 52%, but the draw and a Sparta Rotterdam win together still account for 48%. Recent form: FC Groningen LWWDDL, Sparta Rotterdam WDLLDL (latest first).
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 58% and Under 2.5 is 42%.
Over 2.5 in all 5 Groningen home games this season.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 81% | 19% | 1.24 |
| 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | 1.72 |
| 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | 2.81 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: FC Groningen score in about 84% of simulated outcomes and Sparta Rotterdam in about 70%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in all 4 Sparta away games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.40 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 25% | 4.04 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 3.0 total goals.
| FC \ Sparta | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 9% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 5% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Groningen and Sparta played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Groningen: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 13 league games.
- Sparta: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
- Sparta: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 8 league games.
- Groningen: over 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Eredivisie games only, runs of three or more. Groningen and Sparta.
How Groningen and Sparta compare this season
| Stat | Groningen (home, 5) | Sparta (away, 4) | Eredivisie average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 100% (5/5) | 100% (4/4) | 92% |
| Over 2.5 | 100% (5/5) | 100% (4/4) | 75% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% (3/5) | 75% (3/4) | 64% |
| BTTS | 80% (4/5) | 100% (4/4) | 73% |
| Win % | 40% (2/5) | 25% (1/4) | 32% home · 40% away |
| Goals for per game | 2.20 | 2.00 | 1.94 |
| Goals against per game | 2.20 | 2.50 | 1.94 |
Eredivisie average from 85 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
Eredivisie table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen | 7 | 14 | 9 |
| Sparta | 13 | 9 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Groningen 1 win, 0 draws, Sparta 4 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 0 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 31 Jan 2026 | Eredivisie | Sparta v Groningen | 2–0 |
| Sun, 19 Oct 2025 | Eredivisie | Groningen v Sparta | 0–2 |
| Sun, 2 Feb 2025 | Eredivisie | Sparta v Groningen | 1–0 |
| Sat, 9 Nov 2024 | Eredivisie | Groningen v Sparta | 1–0 |
| Sun, 28 May 2023 | Eredivisie | Groningen v Sparta | 0–5 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Groningen v Sparta?
- Our model makes Groningen the more likely winner at 52%: Groningen 52%, draw 24%, Sparta 25%. Model expects 3.0 total goals.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Groningen v Sparta?
- Over 2.5 goals is 58% and under 2.5 is 42%, with expected goals of 3.0. Over 2.5 in all 5 Groningen home games this season.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 11%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Groningen and Sparta played recently?
- Latest first: Groningen LWWDD, Sparta WDLLD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- FC Groningen
- Sparta Rotterdam
- Eredivisie predictions
- Eredivisie table
- Eredivisie Home win
- Eredivisie Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming Eredivisie predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.581% | 44% | 25% | 32% | 59% | 81% | 36% | 59% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.585% | 52% | 22% | 25% | 64% | 85% | 42% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.591% | 55% | 20% | 25% | 76% | 91% | 56% | 64% |
15:45 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.583% | 24% | 23% | 53% | 61% | 83% | 39% | 59% |
19:00 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.577% | 42% | 26% | 32% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 57% |
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
| 15:30 · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.588% | 75% | 15% | 10% | 71% | 88% | 50% | 58% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 43% | 24% | 33% | 63% | 84% | 41% | 61% |
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.580% | 61% | 22% | 17% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 52% |
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.587% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 31% | 58% | 13% | 48% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.582% | 37% | 25% | 38% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 60% |
| 13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie | O1.580% | 26% | 24% | 50% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 58% |