1. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction

Bundesliga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UK

1. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 14:30 UK): 1. FC Union Berlin 41% · Draw 27% · 1. FC Köln 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.37–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 58%, No 42%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

Published Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK · Updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Union Berlin vs Köln preview

Union Berlin (17th, 5 pts) host Köln (12th, 7 pts) in the Bundesliga. Union Berlin have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (DWLLL) and Köln 4 points from 5 (LWLDL). Union Berlin: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Our model sees little between the sides: Union Berlin 41%, Köln 32%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Union Berlin and 1.17 for Köln, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 53%, while 70% of Bundesliga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Union Berlin won 2, Köln won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 58%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.

Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?

This is close to a coin flip: 1. FC Union Berlin 41%, 1. FC Köln 32%, with the draw at 27%. Recent form: 1. FC Union Berlin DWLLLD, 1. FC Köln LWLDLW (latest first).

Köln lost all 3 away games this season.

1. FC Union Berlin

41%

Draw

27%

1. FC Köln

32%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 47% and Under 2.5 is 53%.

Union Berlin: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.

Line	Over	Under	Fair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals	73%	27%	1.38
2.5 goals	47%	53%	2.13
3.5 goals	25%	75%	3.96

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 58% chance: 1. FC Union Berlin score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and 1. FC Köln in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 5 of 7 Köln games this season.

BTTS	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes	58%	1.74
No	42%	2.36

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

Market	Our %	Fair odds (from our probability)
1. FC Union Berlin win	41%	2.44
Draw	27%	3.65
1. FC Köln win	32%	3.17
Over 2.5	47%	2.13
Under 2.5	53%	1.88

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: 1. FC Union Berlin goals (rows) × 1. FC Köln goals (columns)
1. \ 1.	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%	1%	0%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%	1%	0%
3	3%	4%	2%	1%	0%	0%
4	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
5	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Other	0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

2-1

0-0

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Union Berlin and Köln played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Union Berlin, last 5

Union Berlin, last 5 at home

Köln, last 5

Köln, last 5 away

Current streaks

Union Berlin: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
Union Berlin are unbeaten in their last 3 league games.

Bundesliga games only, runs of three or more. Union Berlin and Köln.

How Union Berlin and Köln compare this season

Stat	Union Berlin (home, 4)	Köln (away, 3)	Bundesliga average
Over 1.5	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	79%
Over 2.5	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	70%
Over 3.5	50% (2/4)	33% (1/3)	54%
BTTS	50% (2/4)	67% (2/3)	57%
Win %	25% (1/4)	0% (0/3)	51% home · 28% away
Goals for per game	1.25	0.67	1.78
Goals against per game	1.50	2.33	1.78

Bundesliga average from 61 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Bundesliga table

Team	Pos	Pts	P
Union Berlin	17	5	6
Köln	12	7	6

Full Bundesliga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Union Berlin 2 wins, 2 draws, Köln 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.

Date	Competition	Match	Score
Sat, 2 May 2026	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Köln	2–2
Sat, 20 Dec 2025	Bundesliga	Köln v Union Berlin	0–1
Sat, 11 May 2024	Bundesliga	Köln v Union Berlin	3–2
Wed, 20 Dec 2023	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Köln	2–0
Sat, 4 Mar 2023	Bundesliga	Union Berlin v Köln	0–0

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Union Berlin v Köln?: Our model makes Union Berlin the more likely winner at 41%: Union Berlin 41%, draw 27%, Köln 32%. Köln lost all 3 away games this season.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Union Berlin v Köln?: Over 2.5 goals is 47% and under 2.5 is 53%, with expected goals of 2.5. Union Berlin: under 2.5 goals in each of their last 3 league games.
What is the most likely score?: 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Union Berlin and Köln played recently?: Latest first: Union Berlin DWLLL, Köln LWLDL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Upcoming Bundesliga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time

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