ProbaPredict

Athletic Club crest Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol Real Sociedad de Fútbol crest prediction

La Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 20:00 UK): Athletic Club 44% · Draw 27% · Real Sociedad de Fútbol 30%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.48–1.17. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 54%, No 46%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Athletic vs Real Sociedad preview

Athletic (13th, 9 pts) host Real Sociedad (5th, 16 pts) in the La Liga. Athletic have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (LDDDW) and Real Sociedad 12 points from 5 (WWWLW), so Real Sociedad arrive in clearly better form. Real Sociedad: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 5 league games.

Our model favours Athletic at 44% to Real Sociedad's 30%. Expected goals are 1.48 for Athletic and 1.17 for Real Sociedad, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).

The goal markets sit close to the La Liga norm: Over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 54%. In their last 5 meetings, Athletic won 2, Real Sociedad won 1 and 2 ended level; 2 had over 2.5 goals.

Both teams to score is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol?

Athletic Club are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Real Sociedad de Fútbol win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Athletic Club LDDDWW, Real Sociedad de Fútbol WWWLWD (latest first).

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Athletic Club44%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol30%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 49% and Under 2.5 is 51%.

Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 Athletic games this season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals75%25%1.34
2.5 goals49%51%2.02
3.5 goals27%73%3.64

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 54% chance: Athletic Club score in about 77% of simulated outcomes and Real Sociedad de Fútbol in about 69%, and both need to happen.

BTTS in 4 of 5 Real Sociedad away games this season.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes54%1.86
No46%2.17

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Athletic Club win44%2.28
Draw27%3.76
Real Sociedad de Fútbol win30%3.39
Over 2.549%2.02
Under 2.551%1.98

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.7 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Athletic Club goals (rows) × Real Sociedad de Fútbol goals (columns)
Athletic \ Real012345
07%8%5%2%1%0%
110%13%7%3%1%0%
28%9%5%2%1%0%
34%4%3%1%0%0%
41%2%1%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-113%
1-010%
2-19%
0-18%
2-08%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Athletic and Real Sociedad played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Athletic, last 5
  1. L 1–3 at Levante
  2. D 0–0 at Valencia
  3. D 0–0 v Alavés
  4. D 1–1 v Elche
  5. W 3–0 v Atleti
Athletic, last 5 at home
  1. D 0–0 v Alavés
  2. D 1–1 v Elche
  3. W 3–0 v Atleti
  4. L 1–3 v Sevilla
  5. D 1–1 v Celta
Real Sociedad, last 5
  1. W 5–2 at Málaga
  2. W 3–2 v Deportivo
  3. W 3–2 at Valencia
  4. L 0–3 v Atleti
  5. W 3–2 at Elche
Real Sociedad, last 5 away
  1. W 5–2 at Málaga
  2. W 3–2 at Valencia
  3. W 3–2 at Elche
  4. L 1–4 at Real Madrid
  5. L 0–1 at Real Betis

Current streaks

La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Athletic and Real Sociedad.

How Athletic and Real Sociedad compare this season

StatAthletic (home, 4)Real Sociedad (away, 5)La Liga average
Over 1.575% (3/4)80% (4/5)77%
Over 2.550% (2/4)80% (4/5)56%
Over 3.525% (1/4)80% (4/5)37%
BTTS50% (2/4)80% (4/5)60%
Win %25% (1/4)60% (3/5)44% home · 29% away
Goals for per game1.252.401.52
Goals against per game1.002.201.52

La Liga average from 94 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

La Liga table

TeamPosPtsP
Athletic1398
Real Sociedad5169

Full La Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Athletic 2 wins, 2 draws, Real Sociedad 1 win. Over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5; both teams scored in 3 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 1 Feb 2026La LigaAthletic v Real Sociedad1–1
Sat, 1 Nov 2025La LigaReal Sociedad v Athletic3–2
Sun, 4 May 2025La LigaReal Sociedad v Athletic0–0
Sun, 24 Nov 2024La LigaAthletic v Real Sociedad1–0
Sat, 13 Jan 2024La LigaAthletic v Real Sociedad2–1

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Athletic v Real Sociedad?
Our model makes Athletic the more likely winner at 44%: Athletic 44%, draw 27%, Real Sociedad 30%. Model expects 2.7 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Athletic v Real Sociedad?
Over 2.5 goals is 49% and under 2.5 is 51%, with expected goals of 2.7. Under 2.5 in 5 of 8 Athletic games this season.
What is the most likely score?
1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Athletic and Real Sociedad played recently?
Latest first: Athletic LDDDW, Real Sociedad WWWLW (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming La Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
13:00 · La LigaAthletic Club crestAthleticGetafe CF crestGetafeU3.590%45%33%22%26%53%10%46%
15:15 · La LigaRC Celta de Vigo crestCeltaReal Betis Balompié crestReal BetisO1.577%38%26%35%53%77%30%55%
17:30 · La LigaReal Sociedad de Fútbol crestReal SociedadLevante UD crestLevanteO1.581%51%24%26%59%81%37%56%
20:00 · La LigaFC Barcelona crestBarçaReal Madrid CF crestReal MadridO1.589%51%21%28%73%89%52%61%
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
20:00 · La LigaSevilla FC crestSevillaCA Osasuna crestOsasunaO1.575%45%26%29%50%75%28%54%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:00 · La LigaVillarreal CF crestVillarrealRCD Espanyol de Barcelona crestEspanyolO1.582%60%22%19%59%82%37%55%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 1 Nov 2026
11:15 · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolleADO Den Haag crestDen HaagO1.584%43%24%33%63%84%41%61%
11:30 · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 1907Venezia FC crestVeneziaO1.580%61%22%17%57%80%34%52%
13:00 · La LigaGetafe CF crestGetafeSevilla FC crestSevillaU3.587%37%32%30%31%58%13%48%
13:30 · EredivisieTelstar 1963 crestTelstarFC Utrecht crestUtrechtO1.582%37%25%38%59%82%37%60%
13:30 · EredivisieSBV Excelsior crestExcelsiorFC Twente '65 crestTwenteO1.580%26%24%50%57%80%34%58%