La Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK
Elche CF vs Valencia CF prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UK): Elche CF 44% · Draw 28% · Valencia CF 28%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.37–1.05. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.
Both teams to score: Yes 52%, No 48%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (9%).
Published · Updated
By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.
Elche vs Valencia preview
Elche (18th, 7 pts) host Valencia (19th, 6 pts) in the La Liga. Elche have taken 6 points from their last 5 games (DDWLD) and Valencia 5 points from 5 (DDLWL). Valencia have not won in their last 4 league games.
Our model favours Elche at 44% to Valencia's 28%. Expected goals are 1.37 for Elche and 1.05 for Valencia, and the most likely score is 1-1 (13%).
The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 56%, while 56% of La Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Elche won 1, Valencia won 2 and 2 ended level; 1 had over 2.5 goals.
Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 56%, which still fails about 4 times in 10.
Who will win Elche CF vs Valencia CF?
Elche CF are favoured at 44%, but the draw and a Valencia CF win together still account for 56%. Recent form: Elche CF DDWLDL, Valencia CF DDLWLL (latest first).
Elche are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 56%; Over 2.5 is 44%.
Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 70% | 30% | 1.43 |
| 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | 2.29 |
| 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | 4.43 |
What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today
Will both teams score?
Our model gives both teams to score a 52% chance: Elche CF score in about 75% of simulated outcomes and Valencia CF in about 65%, and both need to happen.
BTTS in 6 of 10 Elche games this season.
| BTTS | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 44% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 |
| Valencia CF win | 28% | 3.52 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
What are the most likely scores?
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Model expects 2.4 total goals.
| Elche \ Valencia | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 1 | 12% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% |
| 2 | 8% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 4 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Other | 0% (any score with 6+ goals for a team) | |||||
Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today
How have Elche and Valencia played recently?
Latest first. Scores link to each match.
Current streaks
- Valencia have not won in their last 4 league games.
- Elche are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
- Elche: at least one side failed to score in each of their last 3 league games.
- Elche have kept a clean sheet in each of their last 3 league games.
La Liga games only, runs of three or more. Elche and Valencia.
How Elche and Valencia compare this season
| Stat | Elche (home, 4) | Valencia (away, 4) | La Liga average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% (3/4) | 50% (2/4) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 | 75% (3/4) | 50% (2/4) | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% (3/4) | 50% (2/4) | 37% |
| BTTS | 50% (2/4) | 50% (2/4) | 60% |
| Win % | 0% (0/4) | 25% (1/4) | 44% home · 29% away |
| Goals for per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| Goals against per game | 2.75 | 1.50 | 1.52 |
La Liga average from 94 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.
La Liga table
| Team | Pos | Pts | P |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 18 | 7 | 9 |
| Valencia | 19 | 6 | 9 |
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Elche 1 win, 2 draws, Valencia 2 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 1 of 5; both teams scored in 2 of 5.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 11 Apr 2026 | La Liga | Elche v Valencia | 1–0 |
| Sat, 10 Jan 2026 | La Liga | Valencia v Elche | 1–1 |
| Sun, 23 Apr 2023 | La Liga | Elche v Valencia | 0–2 |
| Sat, 15 Oct 2022 | La Liga | Valencia v Elche | 2–2 |
| Sat, 19 Mar 2022 | La Liga | Elche v Valencia | 0–1 |
90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Elche v Valencia?
- Our model makes Elche the more likely winner at 44%: Elche 44%, draw 28%, Valencia 28%. Elche are unbeaten in their last 4 league games.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elche v Valencia?
- Over 2.5 goals is 44% and under 2.5 is 56%, with expected goals of 2.4. Under 2.5 in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
- What is the most likely score?
- 1-1 at 13%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
- How have Elche and Valencia played recently?
- Latest first: Elche DDWLD, Valencia DDLWL (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.
Related
- Elche CF
- Valencia CF
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga table
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Upcoming La Liga predictions
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
13:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | U3.590% | 45% | 33% | 22% | 26% | 53% | 10% | 46% |
15:15 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.577% | 38% | 26% | 35% | 53% | 77% | 30% | 55% |
17:30 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.581% | 51% | 24% | 26% | 59% | 81% | 37% | 56% |
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.589% | 51% | 21% | 28% | 73% | 89% | 52% | 61% |
| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.575% | 45% | 26% | 29% | 50% | 75% | 28% | 54% |
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
20:00 · La LigaLa Liga  | O1.582% | 60% | 22% | 19% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 55% |
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sun, 1 Nov 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:15 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.584% | 43% | 24% | 33% | 63% | 84% | 41% | 61% |
11:30 · Serie ASerie A  | O1.580% | 61% | 22% | 17% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 52% |
| 13:00 · La LigaLa Liga | U3.587% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 31% | 58% | 13% | 48% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.582% | 37% | 25% | 38% | 59% | 82% | 37% | 60% |
13:30 · EredivisieEredivisie  | O1.580% | 26% | 24% | 50% | 57% | 80% | 34% | 58% |