ProbaPredict

Sporting Clube de Braga crest Sporting Clube de Braga vs FC Famalicão FC Famalicão crest prediction

Primeira Liga · Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 20:30 UK

Sporting Clube de Braga vs FC Famalicão prediction (Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 20:30 UK): Sporting Clube de Braga 52% · Draw 26% · FC Famalicão 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Most likely score: 1-0. Expected goals 1.57–0.93. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Sun, 25 Oct 2026, 06:35 UK.

Both teams to score: Yes 49%, No 51%. Most likely scores: 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

Published · Updated

By ProbaPredict Data Desk. These probabilities are generated automatically by our statistical model (ProbaPredict ratings, a Dixon-Coles goals model), not written by a tipster. How the model works · Graded track record.

Braga vs Famalicão preview

Braga (9th, 11 pts) host Famalicão (14th, 7 pts) in the Primeira Liga. Braga have taken 4 points from their last 5 games (LLDWL) and Famalicão 6 points from 5 (LWDDD). Famalicão: over 1.5 goals in each of their last 4 league games.

Our model favours Braga at 52% to Famalicão's 22%. Expected goals are 1.57 for Braga and 0.93 for Famalicão, and the most likely score is 1-0 (12%).

The model expects a tighter game than usual: Under 2.5 is 54%, while 54% of Primeira Liga matches go over 2.5. In their last 5 meetings, Braga won 2, Famalicão didn't win any and 3 ended level; 4 had over 2.5 goals.

Under 2.5 goals is the model's clearest call at 54%, which still fails about 5 times in 10.

Who will win Sporting Clube de Braga vs FC Famalicão?

Sporting Clube de Braga are clear favourites at 52%, with FC Famalicão at 22%. Recent form: Sporting Clube de Braga LLDWLW, FC Famalicão LWDDDL (latest first).

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Sporting Clube de Braga52%
Draw26%
FC Famalicão22%

New to this market? What is 1X2 in betting?

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

Goals look evenly balanced: Over 2.5 is 46% and Under 2.5 is 54%.

Under 2.5 in 12 of 17 Famalicão away games last season.

LineOverUnderFair odds (from our probability), Over
1.5 goals72%28%1.39
2.5 goals46%54%2.19
3.5 goals24%76%4.11

What does over 2.5 goals mean? · Over 1.5 goals explained · Over 2.5 goals tips today

Will both teams score?

Our model gives both teams to score a 49% chance: Sporting Clube de Braga score in about 79% of simulated outcomes and FC Famalicão in about 61%, and both need to happen.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

BTTSOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Yes49%2.02
No51%1.98

What does BTTS mean? · BTTS tips today

What are the fair odds?

Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin. See how betting odds work, the fractional odds chart and, for multiples, the acca calculator.

MarketOur %Fair odds (from our probability)
Sporting Clube de Braga win52%1.93
Draw26%3.82
FC Famalicão win22%4.55
Over 2.546%2.19
Under 2.554%1.84

Got a bookmaker price? Check it against our probability

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What are the most likely scores?

The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.

Model expects 2.5 total goals.

Correct score probabilities: Sporting Clube de Braga goals (rows) × FC Famalicão goals (columns)
Sporting \ FC012345
09%7%4%1%0%0%
112%12%6%2%0%0%
210%9%4%1%0%0%
35%5%2%1%0%0%
42%2%1%0%0%0%
51%1%0%0%0%0%
Other1% (any score with 6+ goals for a team)
1-012%
1-112%
2-010%
2-19%
0-09%

Correct score betting explained · Correct score predictions today

How have Braga and Famalicão played recently?

Latest first. Scores link to each match.

Braga, last 5
  1. L 1–2 v Gil Vicente
  2. L 1–3 v Sporting CP
  3. D 0–0 at Santa Clara
  4. W 1–0 v Estoril Praia
  5. L 1–2 at Amadora
Braga, last 5 at home
  1. L 1–2 v Gil Vicente
  2. L 1–3 v Sporting CP
  3. W 1–0 v Estoril Praia
  4. W 1–0 v Vitória
  5. D 2–2 v Amadora
Famalicão, last 5
  1. L 1–4 v Alverca
  2. W 4–0 at Nacional
  3. D 1–1 v Sporting CP
  4. D 2–2 at Amadora
  5. D 0–0 v Gil Vicente
Famalicão, last 5 away
  1. W 4–0 at Nacional
  2. D 2–2 at Amadora
  3. L 0–1 at Santa Clara
  4. D 1–1 at Estoril Praia
  5. D 0–0 at Amadora

Current streaks

Primeira Liga games only, runs of three or more. Braga and Famalicão.

How Braga and Famalicão compare this season

StatBraga (home, 4)Famalicão (away, 4)Primeira Liga average
Over 1.550% (2/4)75% (3/4)74%
Over 2.550% (2/4)50% (2/4)54%
Over 3.525% (1/4)50% (2/4)36%
BTTS50% (2/4)50% (2/4)49%
Win %50% (2/4)25% (1/4)38% home · 38% away
Goals for per game1.001.751.36
Goals against per game1.251.001.36

Primeira Liga average from 76 matches (2026-27). Average goals for per game is per team.

Primeira Liga table

TeamPosPtsP
Braga9118
Famalicão1478

Full Primeira Liga table

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Braga 2 wins, 3 draws, Famalicão 0 wins. Over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5; both teams scored in 5 of 5.

DateCompetitionMatchScore
Sun, 19 Apr 2026Primeira LigaBraga v Famalicão2–2
Sat, 6 Dec 2025Primeira LigaFamalicão v Braga1–2
Fri, 25 Apr 2025Primeira LigaFamalicão v Braga1–1
Mon, 16 Dec 2024Primeira LigaBraga v Famalicão3–3
Thu, 18 Jan 2024Primeira LigaFamalicão v Braga1–2

90-minute scores, our fixtures plus football-data.co.uk history.

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Braga v Famalicão?
Our model makes Braga the more likely winner at 52%: Braga 52%, draw 26%, Famalicão 22%. Model expects 2.5 total goals.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Braga v Famalicão?
Over 2.5 goals is 46% and under 2.5 is 54%, with expected goals of 2.5. Under 2.5 in 12 of 17 Famalicão away games last season.
What is the most likely score?
1-0 at 12%. Even the most likely score usually has only about a 10–14% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
How have Braga and Famalicão played recently?
Latest first: Braga LLDWL, Famalicão LWDDD (W win, D draw, L loss). ProbaPredict grades every pick after full time.

Related

Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Upcoming Primeira Liga predictions
Sun, 25 Oct 2026
15:30 · PrimeiraGD Estoril Praia crestEstoril PraiaMoreirense FC crestMoreirenseO1.577%47%26%27%52%77%30%52%
18:00 · PrimeiraCD Nacional crestNacionalSporting Clube de Braga crestBragaO1.577%22%24%54%52%77%30%51%
18:00 · PrimeiraRio Ave FC crestRio AveFC Famalicão crestFamalicãoU3.578%28%28%44%42%69%22%49%
20:30 · PrimeiraSporting Clube de Portugal crestSporting CPAcadémico de Viseu FC crestAcad. ViseuO1.585%73%17%11%65%85%43%51%
Mon, 26 Oct 2026
18:45 · PrimeiraCD Santa Clara crestSanta ClaraSport Lisboa e Benfica crestSL BenficaU3.578%18%26%57%43%70%22%48%
Fri, 30 Oct 2026
20:15 · PrimeiraCasa Pia AC crestCasa PiaSporting Clube de Portugal crestSporting CPO1.583%8%16%76%62%83%40%49%

Other matches the same day

Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.

Times in UK time
Other matches the same day
Sun, 1 Nov 2026
11:15 · EredivisiePEC Zwolle crestZwolleADO Den Haag crestDen HaagO1.584%43%24%33%63%84%41%61%
11:30 · Serie AComo 1907 crestComo 1907Venezia FC crestVeneziaO1.580%61%22%17%57%80%34%52%
13:00 · La LigaGetafe CF crestGetafeSevilla FC crestSevillaU3.587%37%32%30%31%58%13%48%
13:30 · EredivisieTelstar 1963 crestTelstarFC Utrecht crestUtrechtO1.582%37%25%38%59%82%37%60%
13:30 · EredivisieSBV Excelsior crestExcelsiorFC Twente '65 crestTwenteO1.580%26%24%50%57%80%34%58%