Mike Jeremy, Senior Sports Betting Editor
Mike Jeremy is the analytical anchor and Senior Sports Betting Editor at ProbaPredict.
Background
Mike has more than 15 years of experience in UK sports betting. Before moving into sports media he spent a decade developing pricing models for a major bookmaker, and managed his own highly successful proprietary betting syndicate. He has watched the industry move from gut-feeling punts and basic odds compiling to expected goals (xG), large-scale data and algorithmic value betting.
Betting philosophy
Mike works to a math-first rule: value dictates the bet, never the narrative. He has no time for fan bias, media hype or "dead cert" accumulators. To him a good punter is not someone who calls the exact score, but someone who spots when a bookmaker has mispriced a market, even by a fraction of a percent. He is a firm believer in managing variance and disciplined staking, and in his own betting he looks for edges in secondary markets such as Asian handicaps and player props.
His role at ProbaPredict
Mike runs ProbaPredict's statistical model and its editorial standards. The match probabilities you see are produced by the model (a Dixon-Coles goals model, with Monte Carlo simulations for season outcomes) and written up by fixed rules, so the same numbers always give the same words and no one hand-picks results. Mike's job is to make sure that model is sound and honestly reported: he reviews the methodology, writes and edits the guides and data studies, and keeps every pick graded in public on the accuracy page, losses included.
What he believes about betting
- Treat betting as a long-run numbers game, not a lottery ticket. Variance is real; bad runs happen to correct prices.
- A probability is not a promise. An 80% pick still loses one time in five.
- Systems that chase losses, such as the Martingale, are mathematically doomed. Set a budget and stick to it.
- Compare every price with a fair probability before betting. Our value bet calculator does exactly that.
Contact Mike
Questions about the model, a guide or a data study, or a correction to suggest: mike.jeremy@probapredict.app.
Read our editorial policy and responsible gambling page. 18+.