Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes prediction
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Sunday, 13 December 2026 · Lightweight · 5 rounds · main event
Charles Oliveira is the favourite at 65%. The likeliest single outcome is Charles Oliveira by decision (26%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 35%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Oliveira is far more experienced in the UFC: 37 fights to 11.
- Oliveira's rating, built from every UFC result, is 93 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
- Oliveira is harder to hit, absorbing 3.1 significant strikes a minute to 4.5.
- Oliveira wrestles more, averaging 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.9.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Charles Oliveira: 65% to win
- KO/TKO13% overall
- Submission26% overall
- Decision26% overall
Diego Lopes: 35% to win
- KO/TKO20% overall
- Submission7% overall
- Decision8% overall
Goes the distance: 35% · Fair odds: Charles Oliveira 1.55, Diego Lopes 2.83. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Charles Oliveira | Tale of the tape | Diego Lopes |
|---|---|---|
| 37-11-0 | Record | 28-8-0 |
| Brazil | Nationality | Brazil |
| 37 | UFC fights | 11 |
| 37 | Age | 31 |
| 178 cm | Height | 180 cm |
| 188 cm | Reach | 184 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 4 / 17 / 4 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 4 / 1 / 2 |
| 5 / 4 / 2 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 4 |
| 3.3 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 3.8 |
| 3.1 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 4.5 |
| 2.2 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.9 |
| 0.40 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.67 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Charles Oliveira: last UFC fights
- 2026-03-08vs Max Holloway
R5 5:00W DEC - 2025-10-11vs Mateusz Gamrot
R2 2:48W SUB - 2025-06-29vs Ilia Topuria
R1 2:27L KO/TKO - 2024-11-17vs Michael Chandler R5 5:00W DEC
- 2024-04-14vs Arman Tsarukyan
R3 5:00L DEC
Diego Lopes: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-15vs Steve Garcia R2 2:42W KO/TKO
- 2026-02-01vs Alexander Volkanovski
R5 5:00L DEC - 2025-09-13vs Jean Silva R2 4:48W KO/TKO
- 2025-04-13vs Alexander Volkanovski R5 5:00L DEC
- 2024-09-15vs Brian Ortega R3 5:00W DEC
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes?
- Our model makes Charles Oliveira the favourite at 65%, with Diego Lopes at 35%.
- How will Charles Oliveira vs Diego Lopes end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 35%. If Charles Oliveira wins, the likeliest route is decision (40% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Charles Oliveira 1.55, Diego Lopes 2.83: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.