Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira prediction
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Sunday, 13 December 2026 · Heavyweight · 5 rounds
Sergei Pavlovich is the slight favourite at 56%. The likeliest single outcome is Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO (45%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 19%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Pavlovich has a 13 cm reach advantage (213 cm vs 201 cm).
- Pavlovich is the younger fighter: 34 against 39 on fight night.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Sergei Pavlovich: 56% to win
- KO/TKO45% overall
- Submission1% overall
- Decision10% overall
Alex Pereira: 44% to win
- KO/TKO35% overall
- Submission1% overall
- Decision9% overall
Goes the distance: 19% · Fair odds: Sergei Pavlovich 1.80, Alex Pereira 2.26. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Sergei Pavlovich | Tale of the tape |  Alex Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| 21-3-0 | Record | 13-4-0 |
| Russia | Nationality | Brazil |
| 12 | UFC fights | 13 |
| 34 | Age | 39 |
| 191 cm | Height | 193 cm |
| 213 cm | Reach | 201 cm |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
| 7 / 0 / 2 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 8 / 0 / 2 |
| 2 / 0 / 1 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 2 / 0 / 1 |
| 4.3 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.9 |
| 3.6 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.7 |
| 0.7 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.2 |
| 1.59 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.71 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Sergei Pavlovich: last UFC fights
- 2026-05-30vs Tallison Teixeira R1 0:39W KO/TKO
- 2025-08-23vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
R3 5:00W DEC - 2025-02-01vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
R3 5:00W DEC - 2024-06-22vs Alexander Volkov R3 5:00L DEC
- 2023-11-12vs Tom Aspinall
R1 1:09L KO/TKO
Alex Pereira: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-15vs Ciryl Gane
R2 1:27L KO/TKO - 2025-10-05vs Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20W KO/TKO
- 2025-03-09vs Magomed Ankalaev R5 5:00L DEC
- 2024-10-06vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
R4 4:32W KO/TKO - 2024-06-30vs Jiří Procházka
R2 0:13W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira?
- Our model makes Sergei Pavlovich the slight favourite at 56%, with Alex Pereira at 44%.
- How will Sergei Pavlovich vs Alex Pereira end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 19%. If Sergei Pavlovich wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (80% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Sergei Pavlovich 1.80, Alex Pereira 2.26: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.