Brandon Moreno vs Charles Johnson prediction
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Saturday, 12 December 2026 · Flyweight
Brandon Moreno is the favourite at 63%. The likeliest single outcome is Brandon Moreno by decision (39%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 65%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Moreno's rating, built from every UFC result, is 57 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Brandon Moreno: 63% to win
- KO/TKO13% overall
- Submission11% overall
- Decision39% overall
Charles Johnson: 37% to win
- KO/TKO9% overall
- Submission2% overall
- Decision26% overall
Goes the distance: 65% · Fair odds: Brandon Moreno 1.59, Charles Johnson 2.70. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Brandon Moreno | Tale of the tape |  Charles Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| 24-10-2 | Record | 20-9-0 |
| Mexico | Nationality | USA |
| 21 | UFC fights | 16 |
| 33 | Age | 35 |
| 170 cm | Height | 175 cm |
| 178 cm | Reach | 178 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Switch |
| 3 / 3 / 6 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 3 / 1 / 5 |
| 1 / 0 / 6 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 1 / 5 |
| 3.9 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.5 |
| 3.7 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.9 |
| 1.4 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 0.5 |
| 0.17 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.30 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Brandon Moreno: last UFC fights
- 2026-09-12vs Joseph Morales R3 5:00W DEC
- 2026-03-01vs Lone'er Kavanagh
R5 5:00L DEC - 2025-12-07vs Tatsuro Taira
R2 2:24L KO/TKO - 2025-03-29vs Steve Erceg
R5 5:00W DEC - 2024-11-03vs Amir Albazi
R5 5:00W DEC
Charles Johnson: last UFC fights
- 2026-08-15vs Eduardo Chapolin
R3 1:36W SUB - 2026-06-27vs Asu Almabayev
R3 3:33L SUB - 2026-03-15vs Bruno Silva R3 5:00W DEC
- 2026-01-25vs Alex Perez R1 3:16L KO/TKO
- 2025-08-23vs Lone'er Kavanagh R2 4:35W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Brandon Moreno vs Charles Johnson?
- Our model makes Brandon Moreno the favourite at 63%, with Charles Johnson at 37%.
- How will Brandon Moreno vs Charles Johnson end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 65%. If Brandon Moreno wins, the likeliest route is decision (62% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Brandon Moreno 1.59, Charles Johnson 2.70: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.