Junior Tafa vs Quentin Pasley prediction
UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes · Saturday, 12 December 2026 · Light Heavyweight
Quentin Pasley is the favourite at 68%. The likeliest single outcome is Quentin Pasley by KO/TKO (31%), and the chance the fight goes the distance is 29%.
By ProbaPredict Data Desk · published 26 Oct 2026. Updated 26 Oct 2026, 19:52 UK; frozen when the fight starts. Generated by our statistical model, not a tipster. How the model works.
What the numbers show
- Pasley's rating, built from every UFC result, is 68 points higher. This is the biggest single input in the model.
- Pasley wrestles more, averaging 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes to 0.3.
- Tafa is far more experienced in the UFC: 9 fights to 1.
- Pasley is the younger fighter: 25 against 30 on fight night.
The inputs where these two differ most, from their UFC records. The model weighs all of them together.
Who wins, and how?
Junior Tafa: 32% to win
- KO/TKO20% overall
- Submission3% overall
- Decision9% overall
Quentin Pasley: 68% to win
- KO/TKO31% overall
- Submission17% overall
- Decision20% overall
Goes the distance: 29% · Fair odds: Junior Tafa 3.14, Quentin Pasley 1.47. Bars show how each fighter wins if they win; "overall" is the chance of that exact outcome.
Tale of the tape
Junior Tafa | Tale of the tape |  Quentin Pasley |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6-0 | Record | 4-0-0 |
| Australia | Nationality | USA |
| 9 | UFC fights | 1 |
| 30 | Age | 25 |
| 191 cm | Height | 193 cm |
| 191 cm | Reach | 198 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 3 / 0 / 0 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 2 / 3 / 1 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| 3.5 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.2 |
| 2.9 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.4 |
| 0.3 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 1.9 |
| 0.48 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.24 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Junior Tafa: last UFC fights
- 2026-06-07vs Iwo Baraniewski
R1 1:25L KO/TKO - 2026-05-02vs Kevin Christian
R1 2:42W KO/TKO - 2026-02-01vs Billy Elekana R2 3:18L SUB
- 2025-07-13vs Tuco Tokkos
R2 4:25L SUB - 2024-10-12vs Sean Sharaf R2 2:15W KO/TKO
Frequently asked questions
- Who will win Junior Tafa vs Quentin Pasley?
- Our model makes Quentin Pasley the favourite at 68%, with Junior Tafa at 32%.
- How will Junior Tafa vs Quentin Pasley end?
- The chance it goes the distance is 29%. If Quentin Pasley wins, the likeliest route is ko/tko (46% of their wins).
- What are the fair odds?
- Junior Tafa 3.14, Quentin Pasley 1.47: 100 divided by each win percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
More from UFC 335: Oliveira vs. Lopes
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.