Correct score predictions today
Football predictions for correct score, ranked from the highest model probability down.
13% is ProbaPredict's most confident correct score today: 1-1 in CA Mineiro vs RB Bragantino. Most likely scores usually sit at 10–13%, so most correct-score picks lose; use them to judge which results are plausible.
These are today's football predictions for correct score, ranked by the model's probability. Even the top score usually has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose. Our public grading record grows with every matchday.
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win, Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5 and BTTS. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| 2nd | 3rd | Fair odds (top) | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 3 Oct 2026 | |||||||||||||
22:30 · Brasileirão Série A Mineiro BragantinoMineirovBragantino | 1-1 13% | 1-0 12% | 0-0 10% | 7.53 | 45% | 28% | 27% | 43% | 49% | U3.5 78% | 69% | 22% | |
00:00 · Brasileirão Série A São Paulo SantosSão PaulovSantos | 1-1 13% | 1-0 11% | 2-1 9% | 7.62 | 42% | 28% | 30% | 46% | 51% | U3.5 75% | 72% | 25% | |
How do our correct score predictions work?
A correct score prediction names the exact 90-minute result, such as 1-1 or 2-1. Every other outcome loses, so even the most likely score is unlikely. The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose.
Our model rates every team's attacking and defensive strength from recent results, weighting newer matches more, adds home advantage, and gives every scoreline from 0-0 to 10-10 a probability, with a small correction for low-scoring draws. The table shows the three most likely scores for each match, and each match page shows the full grid.
Fair odds are 100 divided by the percentage: a 12% score equals fair odds of 8.33. Bookmaker prices on correct scores usually carry a large margin, so real odds are often much shorter than fair. Treat these numbers as a guide to which results are plausible, not a forecast of the exact score.
New to this? Read: Correct score betting explained · What is BTTS?
These football predictions rank matches by probability while keeping the uncertainty visible.
More football predictions
Correct score FAQ
What is the most likely correct score?
Across today's matches, ProbaPredict's most confident correct score is CA Mineiro vs RB Bragantino 1-1 at 13%. Across football, 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 are usually the most common results.
Why are correct score odds so long?
Because there are many possible scores and only one wins. The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose. Bookmakers also build a large margin into correct score markets.
How often is the most likely score right?
Roughly one time in ten. Our accuracy page tracks the top pick's hit rate and how often the actual score was in our top 3 and top 5.
See our correct score accuracy record, including the back-test.
Frequently asked questions
- What does Over 2.5 goals mean?
- Over 2.5 goals means the match finishes with three or more goals in total, counting both teams. A 2-1 or 3-0 counts; a 1-1 or 2-0 does not.
- What does a 60% probability mean?
- If the model gives an outcome 60%, it expects that outcome in roughly 6 of every 10 similar matches. It will still not happen in about 4 of them, so a single result says little about the model.
- How do I convert a probability into odds?
- Divide 100 by the percentage. 50% becomes fair decimal odds of 2.00, 40% becomes 2.50 and 25% becomes 4.00. Fair odds carry no bookmaker margin.
- How accurate are you?
- Every pick is graded in public after full time, including the ones that lose. Hit rates, calibration and Brier scores are on our accuracy page. See accuracy
- Do you guarantee winners?
- No. These are model estimates of likelihood, not guarantees. Even well-calibrated probabilities are wrong a predictable share of the time.