Correct score accuracy
Every graded pick, including the losers. Picks are the highest-probability 1X2 outcome and the Over/Under side above 50%. Nothing is ever removed. For a long-run comparison with bookmaker closing odds, see our study Our Model vs the Bookmakers.
All markets1X2 match resultOver/Under 1.5 goalsOver/Under 2.5 goalsOver/Under 3.5 goalsBoth teams to score (BTTS)Correct scoreDownload CSV of all graded picks
The most likely score typically has only a 10–13% chance, so most correct-score picks lose. Our pick is the single most likely scoreline and counts only on an exact 90-minute match.
Back-testHistorical record
Out-of-sample probabilities from our weekly walk-forward back-test over past seasons (refit only on matches before each week). These are not live published picks.
Matches
18,812
Top pick hit rate
13%
Average top-pick probability
13%
In our top 3
34%
In our top 5
50%
No picks have been graded yet. Results appear here after each full time.