Both teams to score (BTTS) accuracy
Every graded pick, including the losers. Picks are the highest-probability 1X2 outcome and the Over/Under side above 50%. Nothing is ever removed. For a long-run comparison with bookmaker closing odds, see our study Our Model vs the Bookmakers.
Our BTTS probabilities currently don't beat the average-rate benchmark (always predicting the typical BTTS rate) in out-of-sample testing, so BTTS is excluded from Pick and ACCAs until they do. Recalibrated out-of-sample Brier 0.2475 vs 0.2491 for the base rate (14,041 matches).
Pick = Yes when our BTTS probability is 50% or more, otherwise No. Graded on the 90-minute score; shootout matches are not graded.
Back-testHistorical record
Out-of-sample probabilities from our weekly walk-forward back-test over past seasons (refit only on matches before each week). These are not live published picks.
| Band | Matches | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–20% | 1 | 16% | 0% |
| 20–30% | 49 | 28% | 45% |
| 30–40% | 1612 | 37% | 45% |
| 40–50% | 7209 | 46% | 50% |
| 50–60% | 7376 | 55% | 55% |
| 60–70% | 2430 | 64% | 59% |
| 70–80% | 135 | 72% | 61% |
No picks have been graded yet. Results appear here after each full time.