Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria prediction
UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje · Monday, 15 June 2026 · Lightweight · 5 rounds · main event
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Result: Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO, R4 5:00.
Justin Gaethje vs Ilia Topuria: prediction not published yet.
Tale of the tape
Justin Gaethje | Tale of the tape |  Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| 28-5-0 | Record | 17-1-0 |
| USA | Nationality | Georgia |
| 16 | UFC fights | 10 |
| 37 | Age | 29 |
| 180 cm | Height | 170 cm |
| 178 cm | Reach | 175 cm |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
| 7 / 0 / 4 | UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC | 6 / 1 / 2 |
| 3 / 2 / 0 | UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC | 1 / 0 / 0 |
| 6.1 | Sig. strikes landed per minute | 4.7 |
| 6.6 | Sig. strikes absorbed per minute | 3.9 |
| 0.4 | Takedowns per 15 minutes | 1.7 |
| 0.64 | Knockdowns per 15 minutes | 1.05 |
Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.
Justin Gaethje: last UFC fights
- 2026-01-25vs Paddy Pimblett
R5 5:00W DEC - 2025-03-09vs Rafael Fiziev
R3 5:00W DEC - 2024-04-14vs Max Holloway R5 4:59L KO/TKO
- 2023-07-30vs Dustin Poirier R2 1:00W KO/TKO
- 2023-03-18vs Rafael Fiziev R3 5:00W DEC
Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)
Ilia Topuria: last UFC fights
- 2025-06-29vs Charles Oliveira
R1 2:27W KO/TKO - 2024-10-26vs Max Holloway R3 1:34W KO/TKO
- 2024-02-18vs Alexander Volkanovski
R2 3:32W KO/TKO - 2023-06-24vs Josh Emmett R5 5:00W DEC
- 2022-12-11vs Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10W SUB
Won 5 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)
More from UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje
Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.