Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club 
prediction
La Liga · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club prediction (Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UK): Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 38% · Draw 30% · Athletic Club 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%. Most likely score: 1-1. Expected goals 1.19–1.06. Model: ProbaPredict ratings, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 21:36 UK.
Published · Updated
Who will win Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club?
This is close to a coin flip: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 38%, Athletic Club 32%, with the draw at 30%. Recent form: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid DWLWLD, Athletic Club DDWWLL (latest first).
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The model leans Under 2.5 goals, at 61%; Over 2.5 is 39%.
| Line | Over | Under | Fair odds (from our probability), Over |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 goals | 66% | 34% | 1.51 |
| 2.5 goals | 39% | 61% | 2.56 |
| 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | 5.25 |
What are the fair odds?
Fair odds (from our probability) are 100 ÷ our percentage, with no bookmaker margin.
| Market | Our % | Fair odds (from our probability) |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 38% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 |
| Athletic Club win | 32% | 3.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
Head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win and Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Mon, 25 Aug 2025 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT · La LigaAthletic1Rayo Vallecano0Athletic1–0Rayo Vallecano | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
| Sat, 28 Feb 2026 | ||||||||
| FT · La LigaRayo Vallecano1Athletic1Rayo Vallecano1–1Athletic | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | |
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 19 Sept 2026 | CA Osasuna | Away | 1–1 | D |
| Tue, 15 Sept 2026 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Home | 2–1 | W |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | Real Madrid CF | Away | 1–4 | L |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | Real Racing Club de Santander | Home | 3–2 | W |
| Mon, 31 Aug 2026 | FC Barcelona | Away | 2–5 | L |
| Thu, 20 Aug 2026 | Deportivo Alavés | Home | 1–1 | D |
Athletic Club — last 6 matches
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 19 Sept 2026 | Deportivo Alavés | Home | 0–0 | D |
| Sat, 12 Sept 2026 | Elche CF | Home | 1–1 | D |
| Sat, 5 Sept 2026 | Club Atlético de Madrid | Home | 3–0 | W |
| Sun, 30 Aug 2026 | RC Celta de Vigo | Away | 2–0 | W |
| Thu, 27 Aug 2026 | FC Barcelona | Away | 0–2 | L |
| Sat, 22 Aug 2026 | Sevilla FC | Home | 1–3 | L |
What are the most likely scores?
Related
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
- Athletic Club
- La Liga predictions
- La Liga Home win
- La Liga Over 2.5
- Our accuracy record
Other matches the same day
Pick = the single most likely outcome among home/away win and Over/Under 1.5/2.5/3.5. Shading = probability.Darker teal means a higher model probability. Bold marks the most likely of home, draw and away. ✓ and ✕ show graded results after full time.
Times in UK time| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12:30 · Premier League Arsenal LeedsArsenalvLeeds | 62% | 24% | 13% | 41% | U3.5 79% | 68% | 21% | |
12:30 · Championship West Brom BirminghamWest BromvBirmingham | 39% | 30% | 31% | 38% | U3.5 81% | 66% | 19% | |
12:30 · Championship Swansea NorwichSwanseavNorwich | 44% | 26% | 31% | 54% | O1.5 78% | 78% | 32% | |