Eredivisie Relegation Predictions 2026-27: Who Will Go Down?
ProbaPredict's model rates Willem II Tilburg (53%), ADO Den Haag (49%) and SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (38%) as the teams most likely to be relegated from the Eredivisie, with 2 going down automatically. Based on 10,000 simulations of the remaining 243 matches, updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.
| # | Team | Pld | Pts | xPts | xPos | 16th | Relegated | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Willem II | 7 | 2 | 26.3 | 16.0 | 16% | 53% | 1.88 |
| 2 |  Den Haag | 7 | 2 | 27.6 | 15.3 | 13% | 49% | 2.05 |
| 3 |  Cambuur | 7 | 5 | 31.0 | 14.5 | 13% | 38% | 2.63 |
| 4 |  Zwolle | 7 | 4 | 31.1 | 15.0 | 20% | 29% | 3.50 |
| 5 |  Sparta | 7 | 5 | 34.6 | 13.9 | 15% | 16% | 6.36 |
| 6 |  Telstar | 7 | 5 | 38.4 | 12.5 | 9% | 8% | 11.85 |
| 7 |  Sittard | 7 | 13 | 44.1 | 10.6 | 4% | 2% | 52.63 |
| 8 |  Utrecht | 7 | 5 | 45.6 | 10.1 | 3% | 2% | 62.89 |
| 9 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 9 | 45.5 | 10.0 | 3% | 1% | 74.63 |
| 10 |  Excelsior | 7 | 11 | 48.8 | 8.7 | 1% | 1% | 161.29 |
| 11 |  NEC | 7 | 8 | 48.8 | 8.7 | 1% | 1% | 169.49 |
| 12 |  Groningen | 7 | 11 | 48.4 | 8.9 | 1% | 1% | 188.68 |
| 13 |  Go Ahead | 7 | 10 | 49.1 | 8.6 | 1% | <1% | 204.08 |
| 14 |  PSV | 7 | 16 | 76.1 | 1.6 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 15 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 17 | 68.2 | 3.0 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 16 |  AZ | 7 | 19 | 62.8 | 4.3 | 0% | 0% | – |
| 17 |  Ajax | 7 | 14 | 61.6 | 4.5 | <1% | 0% | – |
| 18 |  Twente | 7 | 16 | 61.5 | 4.7 | <1% | 0% | – |
Updated Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK · 10,000 simulations · model dc-1.0-20261002 · Download CSV
Biggest movers this week
Weekly movement appears once we have a snapshot from seven days earlier. The first simulation ran on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
How have the chances changed?
How these predictions work
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times. Every remaining match gets a scoreline drawn from the same Dixon-Coles goals model behind our match predictions, starting from the current table. To avoid overconfidence, each simulated season nudges every team's attack and defence ratings up or down by a small random amount, because ratings are estimates too. Teams level on points are separated by goal difference, then goals scored, then at random; we do not model head-to-head records. The percentage is simply how often each outcome happened across all simulations.
Read the full methodology · Data study: which football league is the most predictable?
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favourite to win the Eredivisie?
- PSV (64%), followed by Feyenoord Rotterdam (19%) and AZ (7%), from 10,000 simulations run on Fri, 2 Oct 2026.
- Who will be relegated from the Eredivisie?
- Nobody knows yet, but the model rates Willem II Tilburg (53%), ADO Den Haag (49%) as the most likely. 2 teams go down automatically and the team finishing 16th enters a relegation play-off.
- How accurate are these predictions?
- They come from the same goals model whose match predictions we grade in public after every game, including misses. Season probabilities are estimates: a team given 20% should win roughly one season in five. See the accuracy page for the match-level record.
- How often are they updated?
- Every morning at 06:45 UK time when new results have come in, and at least once a week. Each run is saved as a snapshot, so you can see how the chances moved. Last update: Fri, 2 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK.