Archived edition from Fri, 2 Oct 2026. See the latest figures.

Our Model vs the Bookmakers: 18,807 Matches Tested (2026-10)

By ProbaPredict Data Desk · Data: 18,807 matches, 2022-23 to 2025-26

ProbaPredict's analysis of 18,807 matches found that margin-free bookmaker closing odds were 2.8% more accurate than our model on match results (Brier score 0.592 vs 0.609) and 2.7% more accurate than it on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The gap was smallest in the Championship and widest in the Premier League.

Key findings

• 1X2 Brier score: closing odds 0.592, our model 0.609 (lower is better), so closing odds were 2.8% more accurate than the model. Log loss: 0.991 vs 1.016 (2.5% gap).
• Over/Under 2.5 goals (17,344 matches with totals odds): closing odds 0.239, our model 0.246, a 2.7% gap.
• Among the leagues we publish, closest: Championship (+2.0%). Widest gap: Premier League (+3.5%).
• The model and the market disagreed by 5 points or more on at least one outcome in 56.0% of matches (10,533). In those matches the market gave the actual result a higher probability 62.4% of the time, the model 37.6%.
• When our model rated an outcome 5+ points higher than the market (average 39.5% vs 30.4%), it happened 28.2% of the time, closer to the market's figure.

Key figures

• Gap (%, positive = closing odds more accurate): 2.77
• Over/Under 2.5 gap (%): 2.71
• Disagreements where the market was closer: 62.4%
• Closing odds 1X2 Brier score: 0.592
• Model 1X2 Brier score: 0.609
• Matches tested: 18,807
• Matches with a 5+ point disagreement: 56.0%
• Live graded picks: 0

18+. Statistical findings, not betting advice. BeGambleAware.org · GamStop.