Mario Bautista vs Umar Nurmagomedov prediction

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, 25 October 2025 · Bantamweight · main event

Mario Bautista

USA · 18-3-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 4 SUB, 7 DEC

Umar Nurmagomedov

Russia · 20-2-0UFC wins: 1 KO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC

Result: Umar Nurmagomedov by U Dec, R3 5:00.

Mario Bautista vs Umar Nurmagomedov: prediction not published yet.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Mario Bautista	Tale of the tape	Umar Nurmagomedov
18-3-0	Record	20-2-0
USA	Nationality	Russia
15	UFC fights	10
32	Age	29
175 cm	Height	173 cm
175 cm	Reach	175 cm
Switch	Stance	Orthodox
1 / 4 / 7	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 2 / 5
1 / 1 / 1	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 0 / 1
5.4	Sig. strikes landed per minute	3.7
4.1	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	2.0
2.4	Takedowns per 15 minutes	3.7
0.29	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.13

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Mario Bautista: last UFC fights

2025-06-08vs Patchy Mix R3 5:00W DEC
2024-10-06vs José Aldo R3 5:00W DEC
2024-01-14vs Ricky Simon R3 5:00W DEC
2023-08-20vs Da'Mon Blackshear R3 5:00W DEC
2023-03-11vs Guido Cannetti R1 3:18W SUB

Won 5 (100%)Lost 0 (0%)

Umar Nurmagomedov: last UFC fights

2025-01-19vs Merab Dvalishvili R5 5:00L DEC
2024-08-03vs Cory Sandhagen R5 5:00W DEC
2024-03-02vs Bekzat Almakhan R3 5:00W DEC
2023-01-15vs Raoni Barcelos R1 4:40W KO/TKO
2022-06-26vs Nate Maness R3 5:00W DEC

Won 4 (80%)Lost 1 (20%)

More from UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.