Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki prediction

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Sunday, 10 May 2026 · Lightweight

Grant Dawson

USA · 25-3-1UFC wins: 2 KO, 6 SUB, 6 DEC

Mateusz Rębecki

Poland · 21-5-0UFC wins: 2 KO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC

Result: Grant Dawson by Sub, R3 4:42.

Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rębecki: prediction not published yet.

Tale of the tape

Tale of the tape
Grant Dawson	Tale of the tape	Mateusz Rębecki
25-3-1	Record	21-5-0
USA	Nationality	Poland
17	UFC fights	10
32	Age	33
178 cm	Height	170 cm
183 cm	Reach	168 cm
Switch	Stance	Southpaw
2 / 6 / 6	UFC wins by KO / SUB / DEC	2 / 2 / 2
2 / 0 / 0	UFC losses by KO / SUB / DEC	1 / 1 / 2
3.4	Sig. strikes landed per minute	5.1
2.4	Sig. strikes absorbed per minute	4.1
3.5	Takedowns per 15 minutes	2.9
0.10	Knockdowns per 15 minutes	0.65

Rates are from UFC fights since 2005, adjusted towards the UFC average for fighters with little UFC time.

Grant Dawson: last UFC fights

2025-12-07vs Manuel Torres R1 2:25L KO/TKO
2025-01-19vs Diego Ferreira R3 5:00W DEC
2024-10-12vs Rafa Garcia R2 1:42W KO/TKO
2024-06-02vs Joe Solecki R3 5:00W DEC
2023-10-07vs King Green R1 0:33L KO/TKO

Won 3 (60%)Lost 2 (40%)

Mateusz Rębecki: last UFC fights

2025-10-25vs Ludovit Klein R3 5:00L DEC
2025-08-03vs Chris Duncan R3 5:00L DEC
2024-10-26vs Myktybek Orolbai R3 5:00W DEC
2024-05-11vs Diego Ferreira R3 4:51L KO/TKO
2023-11-12vs Roosevelt Roberts R1 3:08W SUB

Won 2 (40%)Lost 3 (60%)

More from UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

Probabilities, not promises: a 70% favourite still loses about three fights in ten. For information only, not betting advice. 18+. If gambling stops being fun, get help.